As you are likely aware, I’ve been at this game for a fair amount of time now. Starting in the financial services business straight out of college in 1980, I began gravitating toward the stock market and by 1987 my colleagues and I were managing “OPM” (other people’s money) on a discretionary basis. As such, my first introduction to a bear market was very early in my career.
Needless to say, the “Crash of ’87” and the ensuing volatility over the next few years shaped my thinking about the need to manage risk in this game. And to this day, I view myself first and foremost as a manager of risk.
I bring this up on this fine summer Tuesday because stock market investors have enjoyed the second longest period in history without a -20% decline. Heck, this is also one of the longest stretches without even a -5% correction. So, using history as a guide, the key point I’d like to make this morning is simple. The bears are due.
The problem however is that trying to “call” a bear market in advance is a fool’s errand. First, it is important to understand that they just don’t happen very often. And second, please note that there is generally some sort of catalyst to get things moving in earnest to the downside – a “trigger” that most don’t see coming.
So, this morning I’d like to share some of the things I’ve learned about the bear markets I’ve experienced in my 30+ years of managing money in the stock market.
For starters, long-term investors should remember that bear markets tend to be few and far between. During my career, the bears took control in 1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-02, 2008, 2011, and then most recently between August 2015 and February 2016.
Below are some of the key things to know about bear markets.
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