The first round of the French Presidential elections is held on Sunday, April 23rd, and the stakes are very high. Opinion polls in the past week have been showing an open 4-way race. Any two of the four leaders can make it into the second round.
Here is some background towards the highly anticipated race, followed by four scenarios. Each scenario is accompanied by its probability and expected impact on the euro with EUR/USD targets.
Background
Not your usual French elections
France holds two rounds of Presidential Elections. 11 candidates are vying for support in the first round on April 23rd. The top two will meet each other in the run-off on May 7th.
This presidential campaign is different than in previous years. The outgoing President, Françíos Hollande of the center-left Socialists, decided not to run for a second term, an unprecedented decision. His former economy minister Emmanuel Macron split from the party and announced his own candidacy.
The mess within the ranks of the Socialists was supposed to hand in the elections to the center-right Les Republicans. Any candidate was expected to reach the second round against extreme-right Marine Le Pen and handily win. However, Françios Fillon, a former Prime Minister, and the candidate was embroiled in scandals and refused to quit.
So, there is good chance that neither of the parties that ruled France will have a candidate in the second round.
The four horsemen
Here are the candidates, ordered by the recent opinion polls.
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