Texas Pension Giant Which Needed 35 Yrs Of 8% CAGR To Be 100% Funded, Slashes Expected Returns

As Harvey hits Texas hard in terms of lives and finances, more bad news (not to compare the scale of the two) came from the state from the giant known as Employees retirement system of Texas.

As markets gradually transition from the tranquil landscape painted by central bank quantitative easing and some of the lowest volatility in market history – 89% of futures markets experienced a contraction of volatility in the first half of 2017 – forward looking investment managers assess the potential for lower returns with risk swirling all around. In perhaps a sign of the times, the $26.9 billion Employees Retirement System of Texas ‘ board of trustees voted on Wednesday to lower its expected rate of return to 7.5% from 8%. Some on the board had even recommended a cut to “as low as” 7%. And they are not alone.

Faced with widening pension gap, politicians ask taxpayers for more or for pensioners to shoulder some of the burdens

Not just Employees retirement system of Texas, but public pension fund investments likehave been underperforming the market by meaningful levels, with the average return of 0.6% in 2016 pointing to the worst decline since 2009, according to a study from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The S&P 500 Total Return Index, by contrast, delivered 12.25% to investors in 2016.

The poor pension funds performance come as plans across the country from Illinois, New Jersey Mississippi and California have lower returns. The trend most noticeably started in December 2016, when the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) lowered its expected rate of return from 7% to 7.5%.

Dropping the expected target return has a significant impact, requiring often strapped state and local governments to fill the gap, which can result in unpopular tax increases. Faced with a widening pension gap, Chicago Mayor recently defended plans to raise property taxes a second time, this time boosting revenue by $120 million annually, to cover increasing contributions to the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund.