State Employment Report For August

Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s assessment of the threshold for national recession based on this indicator.How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Here’s the m/m change, by state. Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):Source: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by author.For reference, y/y national NFP growth was 1.5%. Hence, five of seven battleground states were above the national average, with Michigan lagging.More By This Author:Is Manufacturing In Recession?Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) The World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”