Since my last update, there was a significant break and piecemeal recovery across many markets. Not all markets suffered to the same degree and new leadership could emerge.
The Semiconductor Index made steady gains after suffering the largest profit sweep in June. The bearish engulfing pattern remains the dominant pattern but the index managed to return above the 20-day and 50-day MAs (not to mention, the former rising channel). Relative performance improved against the Nasdaq 100 but it hasn’t yet challenged the ‘bull trap’ created after the bearish engulfing pattern.
Another index making positive inroads is the Nasdaq. It was able to find support at the slower channel line and only recently made it across the 20-day and 50-day MA. The bounce hasn’t yet reached a point where it could be considered a decent swing low but the fact the bounce was off a support line is a significant positive. Added to this are the ‘buy’ signal in On-Balance-Volume and a return above the bullish mid-line for stochastics.
The S&P hasn’t reached channel support – a good place to look for a bounce. What it did do was finish with a ‘bullish hammer’ off the 50-day MA. This index is coming off a ‘bull trap’ which still looks to be in selling mode (relative performance is poor) but a push above today’s high would rank as a minor resistance breakout and be a reason for optimism
One significant event which occurred last week was the loss of rising support in the Russell 2000. This move, likely controlled by stop hits, has stabilised and represents a chance for buyers to take a punt on a new breakout coming soon. In this regard, 1400 would look to be key support.
For tomorrow, look for buyers to continue the good form of today. With many markets having fallen inside prior trading ranges it puts markets on a more neutral footing. It’s probably going to take a couple of weeks for one side to assert dominance but for those markets closer to resistance a chance for fresh breakouts should be monitored.
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