Rail Week Ending November 2017: Economically Intuitive Sectors Again Improved

Week 47 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) expanded according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors remain in expansion and the rolling average growth rate improved marginally.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

 

 

 

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, this week it improved 4.6 % (meaning that the predictive economic elements improved year-over-year).

Intermodal transport did grew strongly year-over-year this week – which is the real economically positive element or rail transport.

The following graph compares the four week moving averages for the rail economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line): Rail’s intuitive sectors have been bouncing around the zero growth line for most of 2017.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +0.9 % decelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average +1.4 % decelerating unchanged 52 week rolling average +3.5 % accelerating unchanged

A summary of the data from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 463,602 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.4 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending November 25 were 230,326 carloads, up 0.2 percent compared with the same week in 2016, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 233,276 containers and trailers, up 4.7 percent compared to 2016.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2016. They included nonmetallic minerals, up 4,507 carloads, to 29,579; metallic ores and metals, up 1,616 carloads, to 19,802; and motor vehicles and parts, up 1,537 carloads, to 14,309. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2016 included grain, down 3,820 carloads, to 18,771; coal, down 2,192 carloads, to 81,340; and farm products excl. grain, and food, down 1,044 carloads, to 14,531.

For the first 47 weeks of 2017, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,199,607 carloads, up 3 percent from the same point last year; and 12,653,426 intermodal units, up 3.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2017 was 24,853,033 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.3 percent compared to last year.