Rail Week Ending July 2, 2016: Rail Improves Affected By A Mismatch Of Holiday Weeks. June Rail Movements Down 6.3%

Week 26 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) expanded according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The short term rolling average’s contraction continues to moderate – but this comparison is affected by the 4th of July being in a different week last year (was in week number 27 in 2015).

The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average -3.4 % accelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average -8.2 % accelerating accelerating 52 week rolling average -5.9 % accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR: