The November US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 54.5 percent, down 0.8 from the final October estimate of 55.3. The Investing.com consensus was for 55.9 percent. Markit’s Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Here is the opening from the latest press release:
November survey data signalled a slower rate of expansion in business activity across the US service sector. Although output growth eased slightly to a five-month low, the upturn in new business accelerated and was solid overall. Employment growth meanwhile reached a three month peak, which helped alleviate capacity pressures. In line with this, backlog accumulation softened to a five-month low. Inflationary pressures intensified with both input prices and output charges rising at quicker paces. The latest survey also indicated a fall in business confidence to the joint-lowest since February.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index registered 54.5 in November, down from 55.3 in October. Although the latest index reading indicated a slightly weaker output expansion, the overall rate of growth was strong by recent standards nonetheless. Anecdotal evidence suggested that increases in activity were due to greater new order volumes and robust client demand. [Press Release]
Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as “Non-Manufacturing” (see our full article on this series here). Over the past year, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.
The next chart uses a three-month moving average of the two rather volatile series to facilitate our understanding of the current trend. Since early in 2016, the ISM metric has shown stronger growth than the Markit counterpart. It will be interesting to see how these two indicators play out for the remainder of 2017.
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