Finance 0

March 2016 Business Sales And Inventories Data Is Mixed

By Kurt Osterberg · On May 13, 2016

Econintersect‘s analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales degraded compared to the previous month which was very strong. There was am improvement in the rolling averages. Inventory growth was surprising large. The inventory-to-sales ratios remain at recessionary levels.

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 1.8 % month-over-month, and up 0.3 % year-over-year

unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 2.0 % year-over-year

unadjusted sales three month rolling average compared to the rolling average 1 year ago accelerated 1.0 % month-over-month, and is down 0.5 % year-over-year.

Unadjusted Business Sales – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted but Inflation Adjusted (red line), and 3 month rolling Average (yellow line)

last month and before annual revision

this month and after annual revision

unadjusted business inventories growth up 0.5 % month-over-month (up 1.4 % year-over-year with the three month rolling averages showing inventory build), and the inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.34 which is at recessionary levels (well above average for this month).

US Census Headlines:

seasonally adjusted sales up 0.3 % month-over-month, down 1.7 % year-over-year (it was reported down 1.4 % last month).

seasonally adjusted inventories were up 0.4 % month-over-month (up 1.5 % year-over-year), inventory-to-sales ratios were up from 1.37 one year ago – and are now 1.41.

market expectations (from Bloomberg) were for inventory growth of 0.1 % to 0.3 % (consensus +0.2 %) versus the actual of +0.4 %.

The way data is released, differences between the business releases pumped out by the U.S. Census Bureau are not easy to understand with a quick reading. The entire story does not come together until the Business Sales Report (this report) comes out. At this point, a coherent and complete business contribution to the economy can be understood.