Trade data headlines show the trade balance significantly worsened from last month. Our analysis paints an improving picture for trade using the rolling averages – however imports grew much more than exports.
Analyst Opinion of Trade Data
Our monthly analysis using unadjusted data showed surprising growth in both exports and imports. But the data in this series wobbles and the 3-month rolling averages are the best way to look at this series. The 3-month averages are improving. The worsening of the trade balance does not bode well for 1Q2017 GDP.
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