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EUR/USD Forecast For July 10 – 14

By Kurt Osterberg · On July 7, 2017

EUR/USD corrected its previous gains and dropped within the range. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of trade, industrial output, and inflation figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB continues trying to balance the picture, but sometimes confuses markets. An ECB official said that tapering has not been discussed, sending the euro down. Later, the ECB meeting minutes showed that they had considered removing the easing bias, allowing for a recovery. German retail sales beat expectations while factory orders disappointed. PMIs were mostly positive. In the US, the Fed is also split around the timing of the balance sheet reduction as doubts about the third hike in 2017 persist.

Updates:

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

German Trade Balance: Monday, 6:00. Germany’s huge trade surplus keeps the euro bid. The surplus reached 19.8 billion euros in April. The data for May will likely be similar.

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This 2800-strong survey shows growing optimism. The score in June reached 28.4 points, beating expectations for the sixth month in a row.

Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. Industrial output increased by 0.5% in April, as expected. Despite the late release, after the main countries have already published their data, the figure still has an impact.

German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00. According to the preliminary release, prices rose by 0.2% in Germany in July. The better-than-expected outcome drove the all-European figure higher. The number will likely be confirmed now.

French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. Prices stood still in France in June, as per the preliminary release. This will likely be confirmed.

Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Last month, the Euro-zone trade balance surplus almost totally mirrored the German one, standing at 19.6 billion. Once again, the German number will probably drive the total figure higher.