Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of July 3
July 3
PMI Manufacturing Index – June
52.1
52.1(p)
52.2
ISM (Mfg) – June
54.9%
54.9(p)
55.1
ISM Prices
60.0
60.5
Construction Spending – May
0.4%
-1.4
0.5
Auto Sales* – June
16.6M
16.7
16.6
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Factory Orders – May
-0.5%
-0.2
-0.6
Durable Goods Orders
-1.1
-1.1(p)
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.2
0.4
July 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
240K
244K
244
ADP Employment Report – July
175K
253
178
International Trade – May
-$47.0B
-47.6
-46.2
PMI Services Index
53.0
53.0(p)
53.0
ISM Services – June
56.4
56.9
Nonfarm Payrolls – June
180K
138
170
Private
175
147
164
Manufacturing
6
-1
Unemployment
4.3%
4.3
4.3
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.4
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.2
0.3
Week of July 10
July 10
Consumer Credit – May
$12.0B
8.2
July 11
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – June
104.5
104.5
JOLTS – May
5.95M
6.044
Wholesale Inventories – May
0.3%
0.3 (p)
July 13
Producer Producer Index – June
0.1%
0.0
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services
0.2
-0.1
Treasury Budget – June
-$45.0B
-88.4
July 14
Consumer Price Index – June
0.1%
-0.1
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
Retail Sales – June
0.1%
-0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.0
-0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline
0.1
0.0
Industrial Production – June
0.2%
0.0
Capacity Utilization
76.7
76.6
Manufacturing
-0.2
-0.4
Business Inventories – May
0.2%
-0.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)
97.1
95.1
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