Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 13 And August 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of August 13

       

August 14

       

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index – July

107.5

107.2

107

           

Export Prices – July

0.1%

0.3

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.1

-0.4

0.0

           

August 15

       

Retail Sales – July

0.3%

0.5

0.1

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.4

0.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

0.3

0.4

           

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

20.6

22.6

20.0

           

Productivity – Q2 (p)

2.5%

0.4

2.5

 

Unit Labor Costs

-0.4

-0.4

-.02

           

Industrial Production – July

0.3%

0.6

0.3

 

Manufacturing

0.4

0.8

0.3

 

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.0

78.2

           

Business Inventories – June

0.2%

0.4

0.1

 

NAHB Index

69

68

69

           

August 16

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

216

213

215

           

Housing Starts – July

1.256M

1.173

1.271

 

Building Permits

1.305

1.273

1.304

           

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.8

25.7

22.3

           

August 17

       

Leading Economic Indicators

0.5%

0.5

0.4

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)

98.3

97.9

97.9

           

Week of August 20

       

August 22

       

Existing Home Sales – July

5.509M

5.380

             

August 23

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

FHFA Home Price Index – June

0.6%

0.2

             

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.3

55.3

   

PMI Services Flash

57.0

56.0

             

New Home Sales – July

649K

631

   

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

25

23

             

August 24

       

Durable Goods Sales – July

1.5%

0.8