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Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index June 2017 Unchanged At 5.7 % Year-Over-Year Growth

By Kurt Osterberg · On August 29, 2017

The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth was unchanged at 5.7 %. The index authors stated, “Given current economic conditions and the tight housing market, an immediate reversal in home price trends appears unlikely.”

Analyst Opinion of Case-Shiller HPI

Many pundits believe home prices are back in a bubble. Maybe, but the falling inventory of homes for sale keeps home prices relatively high. I continue to see this a situation of supply and demand. It is the affordability of the homes which is becoming an issue for the lower segments of consumers. It should be noted that the rate of year-over-year increased peaked in February 2017 at 5.9 %, and has declined every month since and is currently at 5.65 %.

20 city unadjusted home price rate of growth declined 0.1 % month-over-month. [Econintersect uses the change in year-over-year growth from month-to-month to calculate the change in rate of growth]

Note that Case-Shiller index is an average of the last three months of data.

The market expected:

Consensus Range Consensus Actual 20-city, SA – M/M 0.2 % to 0.8 % 0.5 % +0.1 % 20-city, NSA – M/M +0.7 % 20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr 5.7 % to 5.9 % 5.7 % +5.7 %

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Year-over-Year Change

Comparing all the home price indices, it needs to be understood each of the indices uses a unique methodology in compiling their index – and no index is perfect.

The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change. Here home price growth generally appears to be stabilize (rate of growth not rising or falling).