USD/JPY
30 min
4 Hours
Daily
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: n/a. USD: New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.
The short term action in USDJPY was very encouraging today. The price continued to rise impulsively off the recent low, and broke back up through the 50% retracement level at 111.64, all positive signs so far.
The price structure is tracing out a possible wave ‘1’ pink and it is beginning to look like a five wave form on the very short term charts. If the current rise breaks 112.42, that will help the bullish case immensely from here.
For tomorrow; As usual, we await a bullish Elliott wave signal off the recent low in the form of 5 waves in the direction of the trend, and 3 waves against.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
30 min
4 Hours
Daily
My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.
The DOW rallied about 150 points today to a new all time high, and then came an immediate decline to begin a possible wave ‘ii’ pink.
I have shown a three wave structure underway in wave ‘ii’ pink off the recent high. The interim low was at 21574 today, so a three wave decline in wave ‘ii’ pink should finish at or just below that level tomorrow.
A further break above 21655 will likely signal wave ‘iii’ pink has begun. The 4hr RSI broke above the centreline again today in a final bullish signal for this rally.
On a side note:
I have noticed that President Trump has referenced the recurring stock market highs as a direct resultant of the new administrations policies. I would advise against taking credit for the bull market. Because you may well be held accountable for bear market to come!
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