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AUD/USD Forecast April 24 – 28

By Kurt Osterberg · On April 22, 2017

AUD/USD reversed directions last week and posted modest losses. The pair closed the week at 0.7528. This week’s key event is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, construction figures were mixed and manufacturing and employment numbers missed their estimates. The Aussie softened after the RBA minutes expressed concern about the domestic employment and housing sectors.

Updates

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. CPI is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The index dipped to 0.5% in Q4, short of the forecast of 0.7%. The estimate for Q1 stands at 0.6%.

Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. This indicator excludes the most volatile items which make up CPI. The indicator remained unchanged in Q4 at 0.4%, shy of the forecast of 0.5%. The forecast for Q1 stands at 0.5%.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech: Thursday, Tentative. Lowe will speak at an event in Sydney. The markets will be looking for clues regarding future monetary moves by the RBA.

Import Prices: Thursday, 1:30. The indicator posted a small gain of 0.2% in Q4, ending a nasty streak of four straight declines. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.4% in Q1.

Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. The indicator rebounded in January with a gain of 0.4%. Will the indicator post another gain in February?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7579 and quickly climbed to a high of 0.7611. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7485, testing support at 0.7513 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.7528.

We begin with resistance at 0.7938. This line has held since May 2015.

0.7835 was the high point in April 2016.

0.7741 was a cap in February.

0.7605 has strengthened in resistance as AUD/USD lost ground last week.