The stock market finally fell 1% on Tuesday as all the major averages plummeted. As you can see in the chart below, the streak without a 1% decline in a day made it to the top 10 longest in history. There was only one streak in the 1990s which was longer than this streak which is impressive because I consider the 1990s rally to be the greatest in market history.
I have been discussing the idea that earnings and fiscal policy will have to drive the market higher now that the Fed isn’t supporting it with zero percent interest rates. Because these are what will drive the market, it is reasonable for me to conclude they were a factor in the selloff on Tuesday. The specific factor which I think caused the stock market to fall was the uncertainty surrounding the healthcare reform plan.
Stocks need a tax cut to grow earnings. The materials and industrials need an infrastructure plan to grow their profits. The financial, energy, and small cap firms need deregulation to cut costs. These initiatives, especially the first two, are in flux with the healthcare bill. It may be political posturing to gain support for the healthcare plan from Republicans, but President Trump stated that if healthcare reform isn’t passed by the House of Representatives on Thursday, it threatens the success of his presidency. The situation shouldn’t be this way because there’s no need to rush through such an important piece of legislation just to get to tax cuts. In the long-run it won’t matter whether tax cuts come in November 2017 or May 2018.
As I said, the key vote which will determine the fate of Ryancare is on Thursday. President Trump and the establishment GOP Congress are currently trying to coax centrist and conservative Republicans in the House to vote in favor of the bill. The plan needs 216 House votes to pass. According to the Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, Mark Meadows, there are 22 conservatives who will vote against it. That’s more than enough to derail the bill.
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