Image Source: PixabayTreasuries have been witnessing strong momentum in recent weeks, buoyed by Fed rate cut speculations. The latest inflation data signals confirmed bets that the Fed will cut rates next week, pushing up Treasury ETFs to new highs. Notably, the 10-year yields dropped to a 30-month low of 6.82%, while 2-year yields are hovering near this year’s low of 3.67%.While the Treasury rally has been broad-based across various maturities, we have highlighted five from different ends of the yield curve that scaled to new highs in the latest trading session. These are iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT – Free Report),...
Image Source: PixabayChina’s dominance of the solar manufacturing industry runs to the tune of +80%, so it’s not surprising that country dominates silver headlines.But investors need to take stock of India’s growing influence on silver markets. Long known as precious metals afficionados, Indians have been storing their wealth in gold and silver for a very long time.Indians buy gold and silver as a method of savings, especially because it can always be sold for cash if needed, and because they have little trust in their currency which has gone through endless, dramatic cycles of debasement.Indians are big gold buyers, and they buy with ...
Image Source: PixabayUntil about twenty-seven hours ago, I couldn’t get enough of this market. As it is now – – yuck! My only salvation is my 40% cash position and the fact my options are all 2025/2026 expirations.This week has had three rallies. The first (red arrow) I completely expected and was prepared for. The second, is blue, was the Jensen Huang rally, was a shocker and completely wiped out the relief from the CPI release. The third, in magenta, is what we’ve seen just over the past couple of hours. The market is back into “ramp and camp” mode, and I am not a fan.More By This Author:Amazon TriangleBeautiful Ga...
In the latest episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey dives deep into pattern recognition and its crucial role in both ice hockey and investing. Drawing fascinating parallels between the two, Maharrey highlights how goalies rely on pattern recognition to make split-second decisions, a technique that can also be applied to the financial world. While hockey goalies anticipate puck movements based on player behavior, investors can anticipate market shifts by recognizing patterns in financial data.Video Length: 00:48:53 CPI Data and Inflation: Decoding the Signals Maharrey’s analysis begins with the latest Consume...
Image Source: PixabayPPI data came in above expectations today, but still, in the grand scheme of things, below levels that would give the Fed heartburn – if they even get heartburn.Today we’re going to look at how crude oil, Texas tea, impacts that same inflation data. What’s more, we’ll look at my charts and see what we might expect if oil prices bounce from today’s levels and return to previous resistance.Why the emphasis on oil? Well, I think we may have an opportunity to get into some long positions on energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and a few others I’ll name.We’re also going to check out a toppin...
Image Source: PixabayAfter two stellar auctions, where both Tuesday’s 3Y and yesterday’s 10Y sale may have been two of the best auctions in history for the respective tenors, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y paper in a decidedly uglier sale.The auction stopped with a high yield of 4.015%, 30bps below last month’s stop and the lowest since July 2023, but the auction also tailed the When Issued 4.001 by 1.4bps, the 3rd consecutive tail in a row.The bid to cover was 2.376, a modest rebound from last month’s 2.31 but below the six-auction average of 2.39.The in...
Image Source: PexelsThe PPI rose 0.2 percent, in line with expectations. The BLS revised the July PPI lower to 0.1 percent.The BLS report the Producer Price Index Rose 0.2 percent in August.PPI Final Demand Key Detail Month-Over-Month PPI: +0.2 Percent Services: +0.4 percent Goods: +0.0 Percent Excluding Food and Energy: +0.1 Percent Food: +0.1 percent Given the Fed’s focus on core PPI and CPI (excluding food and energy), this was a rate cut friendly PPI.Yet, here is an amusing headline on Investing.Com: US stocks choppy following hotter-than-expected PPI readingThere is nothing hotter than expected about the report. The Bloomberg Econo...
Image Source: PixabayWith the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today:Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. August observation for PCE deflator is nowcast as of 9/12/2024 (yoy measure). Horizontal red dashed line at 2% PCE inflation target (for CPI should be about 2.5%). Source: BLS, BEA, Pawel Skrzypczynski, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.More By This Author:Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”Six Measures Of Inst...
Image Source: PexelsBloomberg has an article on electric cars, which illustrates some of the advantages of carbon taxes over regulation: New Breed of EV Promises 700 Miles per Charge (Just Add Gas) It runs on batteries 95% of the time, but a gasoline engine can recharge them for longer hauls, easing range anxiety. EV sales growth has slowed in recent months, partly due to consumers having anxiety about being unable to find a place to recharge their cars. This new type of EV would greatly reduce that problem. At the moment, these cars are available in China, but not the US: It’s unlikely US car buyers will see anything like that on Ameri...
Image Source: UnsplashThe typical seasonal September slump for stocks has left the S&P 500 down 1.5% month-to-date. Regardless of the rebound in the past few sessions, the weak start to the month has put a dampener on investor sentiment. In the final two weeks of August, the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in above 50%. Since peaking the week of August 22nd at 51.6%, bullish sentiment has now slid for 3 straight weeks and is down to 39.8%. That is the lowest level of bullish sentiment and the first sub-40% reading since the first week of June.With the drop in bulls, bearish sen...