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A Feedback Loop Of Market Bliss
Image Source: PixabayMARKETSStocks rallied Thursday as investors continued to shake off a rocky start to September, diving back into tech stocks with a vengeance. Leading the charge, Nvidia—the world’s largest wealth-creation machine—powered up this week, moving markets like the Fed had already delivered a rate cut. And let’s not forget: that rate cut is still on the table for next week. Add in the ECB’s rate reduction, and we’re looking at a feedback loop of market bliss.Nvidia (NVDA) has been playing the dual roles of wrecking ball and rocket ship, sparking market-wide momentum. Nvidia—not the Fed—might be the headl... -
Finance 0
Why OPEC’s Decisions Impact The U.S.
Image Source: PixabayEarlier this year, OPEC and its partners announced that it would begin to ease production cuts for members in the fall. However, with oil prices in steep decline, the group just announced a pause in these plans.This decision eased concerns about potential oversupply as the fall season approaches, and helped reverse the decline in oil prices. OPEC+, which includes non-OPEC members such as Russia, had originally planned to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October.This was part of a larger strategy to reintroduce 2.2 million barrels of oil into the market over the next year. Even small changes in supply, like 200,... -
Finance 0
This Bull Trap Could Be Our Biggest Win Of This Week
Image Source: Unsplash One day left – let’s finish strong! Markets continued pushing higher after this morning’s 2-Leg Pullback…We’re still very bullish, but I see (3) reasons why this BULL TRAP could be our biggest win of the week!Emini and Nasdaq are both bullish into ranges tonight, and I’d love to short one of these (3) Bull Trap Setups tomorrow morning…Bull Trap #1 is the most desirable, but Bull Trap #3 is by far the easiest! E-Mini S&P (ES): Emini is bullish into a range – I’m looking for selling opportunities using bull traps after such a big move higher the last 2 days. E-Mini Nasdaq (NQ): Nasdaq is bul... -
Finance 0
A Steeper Curve May Cause The Technology Sector To Sink Further
Image Source: UnsplashI noticed something today that I hadn’t seen before in the same way, and it could help us understand why the equity market behaves in such unusual ways. It’s clear that owning mega-cap technology has been the “higher for longer” trade, but what’s even more apparent now is how that trade is being timed.The timing mechanism seems as simple as the yield curve, specifically the 10/2 spread. When the yield curve inverts, the XLK rallies, and when the yield curve steepens, the XLK declines. The next obvious question is why, and it’s likely because money rotating out of bonds needed a place to go—perhaps mega-cap... -
Finance 0
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – A Disturbance In The Force
Image Source: PexelsMarkets looked at the economic data this morning and decided that the Fed is going to be handing out some rate cuts in short order.And so we saw the reactions to expectations of lower rates.Stocks rose sharply.Gold and silver took off, breaking up and out through resistance, and gaining ground all the way into the close.The Dollar fell.VIX continued to drift lower.It was gratifying to see gold and silver breaking out of their recent smothering in a trading range.Geopolitical matters are forgotten for now. Many have noticed the sense of panic setting in among the weavers of the dominant narrative. Mainstream talking he... -
Finance 0
Gold Surges To New Record High After Hot PPI As ECB/WSJ Trigger Dollar Dump
Image Source: UnsplashECB cut rates by 25bps as expected (along with a stagflationary cut to growth and hike to inflation forecasts) but all eyes were on US data. A hotter than expected PPI followed the hotter than expected core CPI pushed rate-cut expectations lower (although jobless claims fell). Interestingly, rate cut expectations for 2024 jumped after the ugly 30Y auction and WSJ Fed-whisperer Nick Timiraos comments (which were entirely useless, merely stating that policymakers were considering whether to cut by 25bp or 50bp)…Source: BloombergAs the chart above shows, the shift in rate cut expectations was away from 2024 and int... -
Finance 0
Nationwide Grocery Prices At 2024M01 Levels
Image Source: PexelsFrom the CPI release:Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast as of January (red triangle), ERS forecast as of August (light blue square), Chained CPI – food at home (light green), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Chained food at home CPI component seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, and author’s calculations.Note that food at home prices are essentially at January 2024 levels, regardless of using the official CPI, or the chained CPI. Given August prices, the ERS August forecast (based on pre-August release data) suggests a slight downward movement in the remaining mo... -
Finance 0
Moderna Slashes R&D Budget, Stock Plummets Amid Profitability Concerns
Image Source: UnsplashModerna, Inc. (MRNA) announced today a significant reduction in its research and development budget, sending shockwaves through the biotech industry and causing its stock to plummet. The company, known for its mRNA technology and COVID-19 vaccine, plans to cut $1.1 billion from its R&D spending by 2027 as it grapples with commercial setbacks and a shifting market landscape. Moderna’s Strategic Shift and Pipeline Adjustments In a move described as a “more selective and paced approach” to drug development, Moderna outlined plans to reduce its annual R&D spending from the current $4.8 billion to between $3... -
Finance 0
Why Chinese Traders Might Push Gold (And Silver) Prices Higher
Image Source: PixabayChina’s traders have had a massive impact on gold and silver prices, with a 400% surge in trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2024. While gold could soon hit $3,000, silver is also seeing gains thanks to seasonal patterns. Historically, silver prices spike at the end of the year, and analysts expect a similar trend in 2024. If Chinese demand continues, it could push gold and silver prices up together, making these metals a favorite for investors seeking safe havens amid economic uncertainty.China’s Influence on Gold and SilverChinese traders have driven up both gold and silver prices as economic fears grow. A... -
Finance 0
What’s Behind The Recent Rally In Crude, Looking Ahead What’s Next?
Image Source: UnsplashThe price of West Texas Intermediate crude bounced 6 percent from a recent low. What’s going on?Chart courtesy of Investing.Com, annotations by Mish.Note that Investing inverts the month and day vs US standard order. U.S. readers may find this confusing. Might I suggest an order set by location or a switch set by the user?Fundamental or Technical Bounce?Yes, and yes are the answers.A long-term chart shows the technical picture. And the longer-term it is not pretty for crude bulls.$WTIC Texas Light Crude Weekly ChartImage courtesy of StockCharts.Com, as of 2024-09-11 (yesterday). Annotations by MishIf you are looking f...
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