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Poland’s Current Account Balance Significantly Worsens In July
Image Source: PexelsPoland still shows a solid external balance in 12-month terms, although imports are growing stronger than exports. The next few months will show whether the jump in July is a more lasting effect related to the strong pace of domestic consumption or perhaps a one-off jump related to arms imports.The current account closed with a €1462m deficit (consensus: -€350m) in July, after a surplus of €588m a month earlier. Merchandise exports expressed in euros increased by 4.6% year-on-year and imports by as much as 10.5% YoY, while trade was lower in June than a year earlier. These results were partly influenced by the ca... -
Finance 0
Gold In Euros Breaks All-Time Record
Image Source: PixabayThe price of gold in euros has just broken an all-time record! An ounce of gold is now at €2,300, double its price of five years ago:Gold soars while oil plummets, particularly in the last quarter. With oil and gold prices so decorrelated in recent months, gold miners are likely to report even stronger-than-expected results:Graphically, the GDX index, which measures the sector’s overall performance, is in an optimal buying configuration after successfully testing its resistance line. The current prices of many mining companies look set for a strong upward impulse, provided their results reflect the decorrelatio... -
Finance 0
Biden Administration Runs Biggest Deficit Of The Year In August
In a year of massive deficits, the Biden administration ran the biggest deficit of the year in August.Meanwhile, interest on the national debt eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time.The August budget shortfall came in at $380.08 billion, according to the latest Treasury Statement. That pushed the fiscal 2024 deficit to $1.9 trillion with one month left to go. The Biden administration has already spent its way past last year’s $1.7 trillion shortfall. We’re seeing these huge spending levels and massive deficits despite what is supposed to be a “strong” economy. Imagine what the deficits will look like when the economy... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Rises Amid Gulf Supply Disruptions, But Demand Concerns Loom
Image Source: UnsplashWTI crude’s rise, fueled by supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine, highlights the immediate impact of the storm on US Gulf oil production, but the market’s longer-term outlook remains clouded by demand concerns. The hurricane temporarily shutting down over 42% of crude production in the region has provided some short-term support to prices, but the persistent worries about sluggish demand, especially from key markets like China, are keeping a lid on any sustained rally.The IEA’s projection of slowing global oil demand growth and potential supply surpluses in 2024 adds to the bearish sentiment, particularly wi... -
Finance 0
Next Leg Higher Starting In Gold & Gold Stocks
Image Source: PixabayAs the stock market sold off, gold mining stocks pulled back from resistance, and Silver fell below the critical $29/oz level. Growing recessionary fears, stock market weakness, and the specter of the 2008 Boogeyman pressured the sector lower.That was all she wrote. The sector has quickly recovered and could be poised to run after the coming Fed rate cut next week.Gold has broken again in nominal terms but, more importantly, is on the cusp of breaking out in real terms. Gold against foreign currencies (Gold vs. FC) is breaking out from a five-month consolidation, and Gold against the equal-weighted S&P 500 is on th... -
Finance 0
When XLF Rotation
S&P 500 followed through on Wednesday‘s reversal, and the right shoulder of Sunday discussed inverted H&S is complete. Hotter than expected PPI wasn‘t sold into much (low print I saw as a greater danger to rising equities), and selling attempts in its aftermath turned out weak, making for intraday opportunities with Ellin having a great day.Swing trading perspective though has question marks over both financials performance, and how far can Nasdaq resurgence carry S&P 500 after I called for a day of rotations (yes, market breadth broadened out satisfactorily yesterday) that brought a very decent follow through (outside ke... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY Outlook: Super-Sized Fed Rate Cut Bets Reemerge
The USD/JPY outlook shows a free-falling dollar as markets move to price in a higher likelihood of a super-sized Fed rate cut next week. At the same time, the yen strengthened as more Bank of Japan policymakers took on a hawkish tone. On Thursday, the dollar fell to a fresh low for the year after reports that the Fed might consider a 50 bps rate cut at next week’s meeting. Moreover, former Fed official Bill Dudley said that there was a strong case for a 50 bps rate cut. As a result, the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut shot up from 28% to 45%. Data on Wednesday showed that core consumer inflation beat expectations in August. Therefore, mark... -
Finance 0
Time To Invest And Or Trade In Bio-Tech Stocks?
Biotechnology stocks and exchange-traded funds ETFs once played a significant role in growth equity rallies, but today it seems like those days are in the past.The Biotechnology Index over the last three years declined by 0.8%, while the S&P 500 surged by 31.1% and the S&P 500 Growth Index climbed 23.7%. During this period biotech stocks even weighed down the broader healthcare sector, which saw the S&P Health Care Select Sector Index increase by nearly 20%.In other words the excitement surrounding COVID-19 vaccines that boosted many biotech stocks during the 2020 market rebound has faded, leading investors to shift their focus to... -
Finance 0
McDonald’s Corp. Stocks Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Friday, September 13
MCD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart,McDonald’s Corp., (MCD) Daily Chart MCD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave {iii} of 1. DIRECTION: Upside into wave 1. DETAILS: Looking for a five wave move completion within wave 1 as we are now approaching TradingLevel3 at 300$. MCD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 1H Chart,McDonald’s Corp., (MCD) 1H Chart MCD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave i of (v). DIRECTION: Looking for upside into wave (v). DETAILS: Looking fo... -
Finance 0
Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs – Friday, September 13
The EUR/USD currency pairTechnical indicators of the currency pair: Prev. Open: 1.1007 Prev. Close: 1.1070 % chg. over the last day: +0.57 % The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.5% to ease monetary policy constraints, reflecting updated inflation expectations and improved policy transmission. In addition, interest rates on the main refinancing and marginal lending facility were cut to 3.65% and 3.90%, respectively, effective September 18. Inflation estimates remain in line with previous projections of 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.Trading recommendations Support levels: 1.1051, 1.1013, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884 Resistance le...
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