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    4 Things Long-Term Investors Should Never Say

    More than half of all American adults have investments in the stock market. Yet the average investor tends to underperform major market indices on timelines ranging from one year to more than two decades. How can this be? Some of this underperformance is due to the fact that many investors just don’t have enough resources to take advantage of good buying opportunities, but by far the largest reason is psychological. We’re our own worst enemies. Human beings are very good at behaving in ways that ensure their short-term survival, but few have developed the long-term vision and patience necessary to hang on to good investments for t...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    The US Dollar Remains Stubbornly Bullish

    The Dollar stubbornly refuses to fall, even though it too (like crude/bonds) is very deep into its Daily and Investor Cycle timing. Technically it is weakening, as seen within the indicators on the chart below. I believe this is a sign that the dollar has topped and is about to begin falling. When it eventually does fall, it will probably not look back for many weeks. Such setups in the past acted as bullish consolidation before launching higher, mainly because they occurred earlier in the Investor Cycle. This time around, being that we’re so far past the normal timing band, I expect this is more about the Cycle knocking on support lines th...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Thanksgiving Top Trades Review – Using Options To Reduce Risk And Increase Profits

    Happy Thanksgiving (almost)!   We added a new feature last month called Top Trades™ (Members Only) so I thought it would be a good time to see how we’re doing as well as give a few tricks and tips to our new subscribers.  Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member’s Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample.  Let’s see how they performed so far: We already reviewed our first Top Trade Alert™ in Thursday’s post and our first 7 ideas are alread...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Everyone Wants Dollars (Again)

    A new phase in the markets began this month.  The Federal Reserve ended its QE3+ purchases.  The Bank of Japan unexpectedly and dramatically stepped up its asset purchases under its QQE operations.  The government’s largest pension fund announced aggressive portfolio diversification plan.  Contrary to some press reports, the ECB remained unanimous in favor of additional measures to arrest the deflationary headwinds, if needed.  The staff was instructed to accelerate work on other assets that can be purchased to expand the ECB’s balance sheet back toward the 2012 peak.   The softening of the flash PMI, and expectations that ...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Is There A Rental Shortage – Inflation Threat?

    There is an obvious relationship between supply and demand. In the rental housing market, demand is eroding supply at a rapid rate according to recent data – likely due to changing demographics and preferences. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based 40% on housing costs – so the logical conclusion is that a rapid rise in inflation is just around the corner.   The trigger for this post was a Business Insider graphic Here’s The Single Biggest Threat To Inflation which stated in part: Renting is all the rage these days, and the tightening of the residential rental market is the biggest threat to inflation, according to Ian ...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Oil And Currency Markets Reflect Expectations For Lower Global Economic Growth

    by James Preciado and Jeff Baron , U.S. EIA Since August, both crude oil and currency markets have been influenced by lower economic growth expectations in countries outside the United States. Prices in both markets recently broke out of established trading ranges, driven by concerns about weaker future global demand. The current situation, with the dollar index and oil prices moving in opposite directions, presents a sharp contrast to one in which crude oil supply disruptions or geopolitical risks would cause both the dollar index and crude prices to rise.   Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bloomberg Note: The U...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Big Round By Bigcommerce: $50 Million In Series D

    Australia-based e-commerce platform Bigcommerce today announced raising $50 million (USD) in Series D funding. The company will use the funds to invest in product development, grow sales and marketing, and expand its business to new markets. The financing was led by SoftBank Capital, a venture firm affiliated with SoftBank Corp., and included Telstra Ventures and American Express, as well as existing investors General Catalyst and Revolution Growth. Steve Murray, a partner at SoftBank Capital, will join the Bigcommerce board. “Bigcommerce’s easy-to-use, cloud-based platform allows businesses of all sizes to rapidly build and deploy full-...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    Fans Of Gridlock: Financial Review

    Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB) DOW + 91 = 17,810 SPX + 10 = 2063 NAS + 11 = 4712 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .77 = 76.62 GOLD + 5.80 = 1201.30 SILV + .15 = 16.50 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P. China has cut interest rates for the first time in more than 2 years. The first thought is that China is trying to stimulate growth for a slowing economy. However, in making the announcement, the People’s Bank of China tried to emphasize that the economy is growing within a reasonable range, and the rate cut was not about spurring growth. Instead, they emphasized the need to reduce corpo...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    E Going Green And Saving Green

    I spent most of Wednesday between the computer repair shop, the Doubletree hotel where an investor day was being held by one of our recommended companies, and Bloomberg’s offices and mine, all a short walking distance from each other. It was bitter cold. But given the weather in Buffalo, I figure I got off lightly. However, I refused an invitation to bundle up again so we could be treated to dinner by our son, who is visiting. I preferred to simply cook. A week from today is the heaviest traffic day of the year, when US families gather together to feast on turkey and give thanks. What makes it worse for us is that we will head north to ...
    On November 22, 2014 / By
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    E EC Oil Market Conditions And Opportunities

    This information was originally sent to subscribers on Nov. 14, 2014. Oil Market Conditions and Opportunities Oil prices are in a period of strong decline.  That has hurt the prices of energy companies generally, as you see in the following chart.  West Texas Intermediate Crude (gold line) is down about 23% YTD, and that has flattened the return on the S&P 500 Energy Sector (black line) taking about 15% off its YTD total return. Energy has underperformed the S&P 500 since the oil price broke.  A fundamental question is whether the break in oil and the underperformance of energy is an opportunity or a good way to lose money.  We te...
    On November 22, 2014 / By