Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    Why Do I Have To Be Mr. Pink?

    Because you’re an ag! OK, that was dumb. Let’s proceed….. The agricultural ETF shown below has been trying to bang out a bottom for ages. It has been in a grinding, multi-year downtrend as defined by the channel I’ve drawn, so if you’re looking for a low risk long position, you might want to consider the wonderful world of wheat and soybeans.    ...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Tilting At Golden Windmills

    There is a writer we’ll call Don Quixote who is tilting at something that no longer really exists… the evil gold promoters that used to be taken seriously by innocents to the tune of near total destruction of their portfolios. Don once went on about the gold cult and I even highlighted his post because I had been going about the gold cult as well. The cult-like aspect of the gold“community” (? a dead giveaway) was real, and the group-think that the 2001-2011 bull market fostered was very strong and reallydamaging to those who did not question it tenets until it was too late. But here’s the thing… it is now 2015 and nobody takes ...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    What The Nasdaq’s Round-Trip To 5000 Really Means

    When the Nasdaq Composite Index hit 5000 in March of 2000, jubilant investors celebrated the milestone. Shortly thereafter, however, scores of individuals lost their collective shirts. Many witnessed losses of 50%, 60% or 80% of their account values on names like Cisco, JDS Uniphase and Pets.com. Back then, the euphoria was akin to unchecked greed. Today, the public is far more subdued. And that’s a positive sign. After all, how could we be in a “stock bubble” if we are merely revisiting the place where it all began? (Note: Actually, we have only revisited a nominal (price-weighted) starting gate. The Nasdaq would need to rise above 700...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Chicago’s Only Possible Salvation: Bankruptcy – A Name That Cannot Be Spoken

    Is the Chicago pension system so messed up and union work rules so entrenched the only way to change either of them is bankruptcy? I think so.  So does Dennis Byrne who wrote on his blog today Chicago’s Only Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy. This is a guest post from Byrne. Chicago’s Only Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy Wait, I thought only the Republican Party was being torn asunder by a rift between the establishment middle and the fringe. That impression was nailed down, again, last week by the embarrassing fracture among House Republicans over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. But don’t forget l...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC Is Japan Zimbabwe?

    Is Japan Zimbabwe? How preposterous: Japan is an advanced economy that cannot possibly suffer the same fate as Zimbabwe. Right? Or could Japan get hyperinflation? Below I explain why Japan, and with it investors’ portfolios, might be at risk. The other day, when I was on a panel discussing unsustainable deficits in the U.S., Eurozone and Japan, the risk of inflation and Zimbabwe style hyperinflation came up. When asked about the difference about Japan and Zimbabwe, I quipped that there isn’t any. My co-panelists were all over me, arguing Japan is different. Notably that Japan could not possibly go broke because, unlike Zimbabwe, it’s an...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Great Graphic: US And European Stocks

    This Great Graphic shows two time series. The white line is the S&P 500 and the yellow line is the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 (tracks European stocks). Using Bloomberg analytics, we indexed the two time series from the start of 2014. In the 14 months covered here, the S&P has risen by a little more 15.0% and the Stoxx 600 has risen by 19%.   Over this time period, the euro has fallen about 18.2%. This would nearly completely wipe out the Stoxx 600 gain unless the currency was hedged.  As the chart shows, from late June through the end of last year, the S&P 500 outperformed the Stoxx 600. During this window the euro fell almost 11...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Using Economic Data Is Easy With The Fred Database

    How your company is performing is not obvious unless you compare it to something. What looks like good work could simply be a rising economy lifting even the leaky boats. Or in difficult times, you may be outperforming your competition. Looking at economic data can help you understand your own company’s performance. This article explains how to do that with the Fred database, a free source of massive economic data. Let’s begin, though, with a story. People think of an economist as being a forecaster, which we often are, but some of my most useful work was looking at past data. One day the internal reports showed lackluster deposit growth ...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Quit All The Barking. No Bear Market Coming. Just Follow Bear

    While growing up back east in the Big Apple our family always had at least one quad-ped with a tail, better known as a dog. The one that was my favorite and best friend was a Chow and German Shepherd mix. He was brown and white and BIG whom we named Bear. He was extremely protective and would spring to attack mode when anyone even looked cross. Thing is, it wasn’t until I was much older that I realized he’d spring to attack mode with anyone, anytime friend or foe, just never against us. I realized Bear was wise beyond even his dog years and adhered to the old saying, “you don’t bite the hand that feeds you”. Some, and for me far too...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Breadth Still Healthy

    There really isn’t anything significant happening in market internals lately. From all appearances the market wants to go higher, but probably needs to consolidate a bit before another rally. If the market dips keep an eye on breadth to see if anything changes from bullish to bearish for early warning of a significant decline. Here’s an update of some of the breadth measures I follow. They all have healthy readings, but with a few nuances. The NYSE Advance / Decline line (NYAD) is confirming the recent move to new highs. This is the most healthy sign of breadth I’m watching. Breadth between the most bullish stocks on Twitter and StockTw...
    On March 3, 2015 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Mining Stock Tips: 9X The Gold Price

        Gold Mining Stock Tips: Why The Time Is Now Gold mining stocks have proven their value once again in comparison to gold itself in the past few months. During the most recent correction of the precious metal, gold mining stocks barely moved. This indicates that investors are no longer willing to let go of their gold mining stocks, despite the lower gold price. Gold and silver had a very strong start to the year: the gold price increased by $100 and the silver price by $3. These last few weeks, however, gold and silver had to give up practically all of their gains; gold and silver mining stocks are a completely different story. Gold and s...
    On March 3, 2015 / By