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Futures Slide On Apple Disappointment, Oil Slumps Ahead Of Fed Decision
While the focus in the overnight session has traditionally been about two things, namely oil and China, today one can also throw in AAPL which is down 4% in the pre-market after its disappointing earnings yesterday in which it confirmed our channel-checked warnings about China from last summer, and the Fed which is set to release the January FOMC statement this afternoon. Unlike yesterday, when the National Team allowed stocks to tumble, today the Chinese Plunge Protection Team intervened, and with the Shanghai Composite down as low at 2,638, the benchmark stock index pared the loss of as much as 4.1%, spurred by rallies for PetroChina, ICBC... -
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US Economy: On A Knife’s Edge
Gross Output Remains Under Pressure We should mention right from the outset that recent data releases – weak as most of them were – are still not confirming an imminent recession with certainty. The situation remains a bit fuzzy: we see a lot of weakness in important data, and considering the overall picture – which includes what is happening globally – we can infer that the likelihood of a significant economic downturn this year is extremely high, but it’s not inevitable. While it is still possible that a recession can be dodged this year, that seems a low probability outcome by now. Photo credit: Darren Ketchum Last week the g... -
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Novartis Posts Lower-Than-Expected Earnings In Q4
Novartis (NVS – Analyst Report) has a strong presence in the healthcare market across the world. This Switzerland based company has a presence in the field of oncology, neuroscience, ophthalmology and generics. However, like many of its peers, Novartis is facing generic competition and pricing pressure for some of the products in its pharmaceutical segment. Novartis’ blockbuster drug, Diovan lost exclusivity both in the U.S. and EU and entry of generics is impacting the top-line. In this scenario, investor focus remains on new drug approvals, late-stage pipeline candidates and their commercial potential, apart from the usual top-an... -
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The “Woes” Of Wall Street
A day in the life of a trader or equity sales can certainly be glamorous in terms of the level of pay, but it is NO walk in the park. I would argue that those on Wall Street who rely heaviest on commissions and general performance have the heaviest burdens to bear in the broader scheme of things, and not just in terms of making a living for themselves or their families. It is often said that money can’t buy happiness, and I certainly do not doubt the validity of this statement when you take a look at what the stress of high-paying Wall Street jobs does to otherwise ordinary and happy people. By no means am I telling you that you should... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY Looks To Build Up On Price Recovery
USDJPY: Having halted its upside pressure to close higher on Tuesday, USD/JPY looks to build up on price recovery. On the downside, support comes in at the 118.00 level where a break if seen will aim at the 117.50 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 117.00 level and possibly lower towards the 116.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the upside, resistance resides at the 119.00 level. Further out, we envisage a possible move towards its range top at the 119.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 120.00 level with a turn above here aiming at the 120.50 level. On the whole,... -
Finance 0
Deutsche Bank Declares War On Mario Draghi, Warns Him Any Further QE Will Push Stocks Lower
In what is the first official warning to a central bank to no longer do what has been done so far for seven years, earlier today Deutsche Bank came out with a startling presentation addressed to Mario Draghi, warning him explicitly that any more QE will not only not help stocks (and certainly not DB stock which continues to plumb post-crisis lows on fears it is overexposed to the commodity crunch and potentially such names as Glencore and various other commodity traders), but will actually push equities lower. Here is the key segment from a report just released by the bank’s European Equity Strategy: While the outlook for more ECB ea... -
Finance 0
Gold Jumps On Safe-Haven Buying
Gold prices climbed for a second straight session on Tuesday to settle at their highest level since early November as the weakness in the dollar and equities markets spurred investors’ appetite for the relative safety of the precious metal. The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $1122.87 an ounce after breaching a key resistance at $1113 provided additional momentum. The XAU/USD is currently trading at $1118.96, slightly lower than the opening price of $1119.68. All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve today. There is a growing perception that that recent market turmoil and continued decline in inflation expectations will push the Federal R... -
Finance 0
The Strongest Economies Entering 2016
Economies around the world have been feeling the pinch of declining growth and subdued inflation. Although there is not a clear separation between the haves and have nots, there are a couple of economies that have gained traction and are not purely liquidity driven. These countries are now situated where the central banks that preside are poised to begin a monetary policy normalization. This is the process of raising interest rates back to a level that would be considered fairly normal historically based on the current level of economic growth. The United States and the United Kingdom are the two developed economies that are experiencing t... -
Finance 0
API Stockpile Extends Oil Glut, Expected Fed Inaction Lifts Gold
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute released inventory data to subscribers at 8:30 am (Sydney) showing a large build in crude. That instantly pushed oil price down below $31 where it may linger for the rest of today. Although stocks at Cushing fell by 660,000 barrels, total U.S. crude inventories surged 11.4 million barrels last week thus worsen the global glut. This spread to some risk assets and tamper with the on-going global risk rally. Following the oil slip, lower than expected China’s December Industrial Profits accentuated economic doubts and dragged stocks, commodities lower. Oil likely trades under pressure until of... -
Finance 0
Mixed Dollar As Eyes Turn To FOMC
The US dollar is broadly mixed as attention turns to the FOMC statement later today. The most important development has been the unexpectedly large oil inventory build reported by the API ahead of today’s government estimate. The 11.4 mln barrel build is the largest in nearly two decades. To put the rise in perspective, consider that the US output is around 9.2 mln barrels a day. The news keeps the price of crude volatile, and yesterday’s $1.10 increase in the March light sweet contract has been completely unwound today. This is turn has weighed on the oil-sensitive currencies, like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian k...
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