In the midst of this global stock market meltdown, you’re probably wondering whether you should do nothing or something. Gurus, pundits, and advisors usually recommend doing nothing in times of extreme volatility and uncertainty. Their argument is that the future is unpredictable, the market will bounce back, and staying fully invested has proven to be the best bet for the long haul. However – like so many investment rules and advice – it is inadvisable to think they’re applicable to all investors, regardless of their age and the market conditions. Let me share with you an example: Yesterday, my son who is soon off to college, asked...
“In the year of 1284, on the day of Saints John and Paul on June 26, by a piper, clothed in many kinds of colours, 130 children born in Hamelin were seduced, and lost at the place of execution near the koppen.” We are all familiar with the tale of the brightly-clothed pied piper whose lovely tune was so enchanting as to lure a town’s entire population of children to their premature demise. Few may realize the legend was born of true events. The Lower Saxony hamlet was battling a rat infestation and the pied piper originally labored to rid the scourge in exchange for payment. Rat-free, the townspeople reneged and paid dearly with their c...
Durable Goods Orders crashed 5.1% MoM, far below the worst Wall Street forecast… … and turned back negative YoY as both sets including and ex-transports continues to deteriorate, flashing that a recessionary environment is already upon us (if not an actual recession). However, it is in the core – non-defense ex-aircraaft – segment that we see the real bloodbath as shipments plunged and new orders collapsed 7.5% YoY – another “worst since Lehman” moment. Of course we still have bartenders and waitresses to maintain the US economy so this is just transitory weakness in the stock market’s most-de...
We have consistently been making the contrarian call for a falling silver price and a rising gold to silver ratio for years. This ratio has risen a lot during this time. So are we ready to change our call yet? Review of Our Call in 2015 Let’s hold ourselves accountable for what we said last year in our Outlook 2015: “There is currently no evidence that scarcity is rising, and thus gold should shoot da moon.” Our bottom line recommendation was, “To those looking to trade, at the moment this report is published you might buy gold for a quick trade. There is no case to buy silver.” We added, “We see no rush to load up the truck just...
The jump in oil prices to above $33 per barrel helped to lift commodity-linked currency pairs which included the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars, as well as the Canadian Loonie. In early trade in Europe, the Australian Dollar rose nearly 0.9% and approached a 3-week peak. Meanwhile the New Zealand Dollar saw marginal gains following the Reserve Bank’s dovish sounding policy decision. The RBNZ Governor hinted at the possibility of more easing ahead given the shaky outlook for the global economy. As reported at 10:41 am (GMT) in London, the AUD/USD was trading at $0.7084, a gain of 0.80% and near the session peak of $0.7092. The NZD/USD was up 0.53% ...
For UniCredit SpA (UNCFF), the largest Italian bank by assets, news of the request from the European Central Bank’s Single Supervisory Mechanism sent shares tumbling amid rising concerns about the lack of collective action in dealing with the problem. After years of fumbling following a rapid pace of acquisition and expansion in the lead up to the sovereign debt crisis, the company’s leadership is now tasked with paring down its cross-border exposure as the bank struggles to show returns to investors. However, the nonperforming loans issue will weigh heavily on the shares in the near-term as UniCredit remains under pressure to show shar...
A sharp decline in stock prices has stunned investors in the first weeks of 2016. This rapid decline follows a prolonged and deep decline in commodity prices. Monetary authorities across the globe are increasingly concerned that headline inflation is close to zero and drifting lower. It appears that we may be in for a bout of deflation, especially if global economies turn down again. If that happens, income investors will have only one safe haven: prime corporate bonds. Deflation, Dead Ahead The glut of money in the economy is one of the primary causes of this deflation, both in the United States and worldwide. Until about 2012, the Fed’s m...
Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS – Analyst Report) last night released their fourth quarter fiscal 2015 earnings results, posting earnings of $0.62 and revenue of $2.862 billion. Currently, LVS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but it is subject to change following the release of the company’s latest earnings report. Here are 5 key statistics from this just announced report below. Las Vegas Sands: 1. Missed earnings estimates. The company posted $0.62, missing our Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.64. Las Vegas Sands’ EPS figure excludes $0.03 from non-recurring items. 2. Missed r...
As we do every quarter, just before CAT announces its result, we show the monthly retail sales for the heavy industrial conglomerate, and in the month of December things went from really bad to even worse, when the company reported what in our estimate was the worst month since the financial crisis, with global retail sales matching the worst annual decline this decade, while the duration of the sales contraction is now unprecedented in company history. Today, CAT confirmed the flow through from this depressed picture when it announced that not only did revenue tumble by 23% to $11 billion, but it missed already deeply cut estimates of $11.4 ...