Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    Gold Demand Up, Supplies Nosedive In Fourth Quarter Of 2015

    Gold supplies took a nosedive as demand increased in the final quarter of 2015, according to the latest GFMS Gold Survey by Thompson Reuters. Total gold supply dropped 7% in Q4 of 2015, driven down by a 4% decline in mining production. It was the largest decline in mine output since 2008, according to the report: We expect this trend to continue in 2016, due to lower production at more mature operations and a lack of new mines coming on stream. We currently forecast global mine output to shrink in 2016, marking the first annual decline since 2008 and the largest in percentage terms since 2004.” This confirms statements by mining company off...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – January 28, 2016

    S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday but found the 1920 level to be a bit too resistive. The Federal Reserve had its FOMC Statement come out during the course of the day, and this ended up turning the market around completely as the Federal Reserve looks to the global economy to make its next decision. However, they also stated that they fully intend on raising interest rates gradually as economic conditions allow. At this point though, I see quite a bit of support below, so I think it would not be a huge surprise to see some type of supportive candle between here and the 1820 handle. ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    NYSE Margin Debt Renews Its Decline

    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. We’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today’s dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1995 start date, we were ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Celgene Misses On Q4 Earnings, Beats On Revenues

    Celgene Corporation (CELG – Analyst Report) a leading biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of drugs targeting cancer and immune/inflammatory diseases. The Summit, NJ based company is well known for Revlimid and oncology products like Vidaza, Istodax, Abraxane, Pomalyst and Thalomid. However, like many of its peers, Celgene is facing generic competition for several of the important products including Vidaza. In this scenario, investor focus remains on the performance of key products like Revlimid as well as recently approved products like Otezla. Celgene is also looking to expand Revlim...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is Nucor’s 4.2% Dividend Yield A Steal?

    Nucor (NUE) has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years – every year since it first began paying dividends in 1973. For a company operating in the often-challenging steel market, such consistency is remarkable. The stock also offers the fifth highest dividend yield (4.2%) out of all the dividend aristocrats, perhaps making it an interesting candidate for income investors to consider. While the stock is not in our Top 20 Dividend Stocks portfolio today, the company possesses several competitive advantages that dividend growth investors should be aware of. Business Overview NUE manufactures steel products in the U.S. and Canada ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    ERISA Investment Committee Governance

    For those who missed the January 27 webinar entitled “ERISA Plan Investment Governance: Avoiding Breach of Fiduciary Duty Claims,” click here to download the slides for this educational program. There were three presenters, each of us sharing a different perspective about this important topic. I spoke about economics and governance. Executive Rhonda Prussack (Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance) provided information about ERISA fiduciary liability insurance. Attorney Richard Siegel (Alston & Bird) offered his takeaways for investment committee members as the result of recent litigation decisions. As with most discussi...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Tim Duy… Brains Need Not Explode

    Tim Duy, who is a cool economist, points out a difference between the labor market and output GDP… Labor market improving while GDP is slowing. He describes this difference for the Fed. “Now they have slow GDP growth and fast employment growth. That will make brains explode on Constitution Ave.” Yet, Brains need not explode. I have had a model of this difference for a couple of years, which predicted perfectly this situation. Yet, my model ultimately shows that the business cycle has ended, which is something economists like Duy and others at the Fed may not accept. The Cobra Equation The driving force behind an effective demand limit i...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Baker Hughes Posts Wider Than Expected Loss In Q4

    Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI – Analyst Report) is one of the major oilfield service companies in the world, providing a range of services to the global oil and gas industry. The company is a major supplier of wellbore-related products and technology services and systems. It caters to drilling, pressure pumping, formation evaluation, completion and production, and reservoir technology. It also offers consulting services to the worldwide oil and natural gas industry. Currently, Baker Hughes has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) but that could change following its fourth quarter 2015 earnings report which has just released. We have highlighted some of t...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Dividend Aristocrats Part 51: AT&T

    AT&T (T) is the largest telecommunications company in North America based on its $281 billion market cap. The company’s high dividend yield and long history of dividend increases make the company a favorite holding for many dividend investors: AT&T has a dividend yield of 5.4%. AT&T has increased its dividend payments for 32 consecutive years A&T’s stock price is more stable than average. The company’s 10 year stock price standard deviation and beta are below: Stock price standard deviation of 22.3% Beta of 0.78 The company offers investors high yields along with lower-than-average stock price risk. AT&T has outperf...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    RBNZ Outlook Keeps Kiwi Dollar Under Pressure

    After leaving interest rates unchanged at 2.50% in the latest meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to exhibit a strongly dovish bias, issuing additional warnings on troublesome external conditions. The Central Bank remains cautious in its attitude as falling commodity prices coupled with lackluster inflation may drive further policy decisions over the near-term as it works to fulfill its own mandate. Coming on the heels of the Federal Reserve decision to leave US interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and a slightly dovish tone from the FOMC, the NZDUSD pair has begun to recover from some of the previous sessions losses. The possibil...
    On January 28, 2016 / By