Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    MKS Instruments, Inc. Whipsaw

    In the original post I gave two legitimate reasons I was short MKSI (semi equipment sector fundamentals and an un-actualized technical topping pattern) and one illegitimate reason (I don’t like the company or the guy running it). Owing to reason number 3, I was dismayed as the market reacted very bullishly out of the gate. I held it short, with the thought ‘eff you, I’m gonna let it settle out’. I am biased slightly more long than short at the moment, after all. No pressure....
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Hershey Beats On Q4 Earnings; Sales Remain Weak

    The Hershey Company (HSY – Analyst Report) is one of the largest chocolate manufacturers in North America marketing some of the world’s leading brands like Hershey’s, Reese’s and Kisses which enjoy widespread consumer acceptance. Hershey’s sales trends have been weak since 2014 due to lower retail store traffic, intense competition from the broader snacking category and soft international growth. However, margins have been better supported by price increase, supply chain savings and productivity gains. HSY witnessed downward earnings estimate revisions for 2016 over the past 30 days. However, HSY has a mixed earnings surprise...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    3 Things: Fed Error, Houston R/E, No Bounce?

    The Potential Of A Policy Error Has Risen Yesterday, the Fed clearly showed they are trapped in their decision to raise rates. Despite an ongoing deterioration in the underlying economic and financial market fabric, Yellen & Co. stayed firm in their commitment to a gradual increase in interest rates. What is most interesting is their focus on headline employment data while ignoring their very own Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) which shows a clear deterioration in the employment underpinnings. But here is the potential problem for the Fed’s dependence on current employment data as justification for tightening monetary policy –...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Want To Know What The S&P500 Does Next? Just Look At The Fed’s Balance Sheet

    Over the past 7 years, we as well as others (if not those who believe in magic money trees, or managing other people’s money while blogging) have repeatedly said that when it comes to “market” returns, look no further than the size of the Fed’s balance sheet – the single best indictor of where the S&P500 is headed to next. That is precisely what DB’s Jim Reid did overnight. This is what he says: Today we update a chart and table we used a fair amount in 2013/4 looking at the Fed balance sheet and equity and credit performance. The relationship works best with a 3 month lag (i.e. asset prices move ahead ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    In Poor Health

    In spite of the silly, and ultimately futile, counter-trend rally we’ve seen for over a week now, there are two sectors are are steadfastly weak, and they’re both related to healthcare. Below are XLV (the healthcare ETF) and IBB (a money-maker for me recently, the biotech ETF)....
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Caterpillar’s Q4 Earnings Beat On Cost Management

    Caterpillar Inc. (CAT – Analyst Report) is one of the well-known names in the construction and mining machinery industry with a market capitalization of $33.96 billion.It is a leading exporter in the U.S. with more than half of its sales being generated outside the country. Caterpillar yesterday reported a 38% decline in its global retail sales for the three months ended Dec 2015. In fact, this was the worst three-monthly performance in 2015, which witnessed an average decline of 16%. This does not bode well for its fourth quarter performance. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in agriculture have also negatively impacted sales...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    U.S. Durable Goods Orders Crash 5.1% – USD Slides

    The U.S. economy is going in a positive direction: a fall of 5.1% in durable goods orders and a disappointing 1.2% fall in the core figure. In addition, the previous numbers were both revised down from 0% to -0.5%. The only positive figure in this bulk is a minor beat in weekly jobless claims: 278K.  The USD is falling across the board. The moves aren’t huge, but the pressure is clear. Talk about a recession is going to grow. This naturally feeds into the GDP growth figures for Q4 published tomorrow. EUR/USD is pushing a bit higher, reaching a high of 1.0928. The pair’s moves are slow. GBP/USD is at 1.4323. Earlier, UK GDP met expectat...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    DAX 30: Stable Ahead Of Durable Goods Orders

    The DAX 30 may reach the January 13 high of 10,165 as long as it trades above the January 26 low of 9563. Traders will probably add to their long exposure on a corrective move to the support range of 9639 to 9753. An alternative entry is a break to the January 14 high of 9945. A break to this level would also accelerate the uptrend as its fair to expect there is a layer of buy orders and stop loss order above 9945. Data pieces to watch today are U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims. A Bloomberg News survey projects an outcome of -0.7% MoM and 281K respectively. My base case is that better than expected data will lift the DAX ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EA Stock Forecast: UEFA Euro 2016 And Mobile Gaming Are Long-Term Tailwinds

    Electronic Arts (EA) seems to have a habit of beating the market. The market ended 2015 in the red but EA was up roughly 50% for the year. Even in 2016, EA is off to a decent start as the stock is down only about 2% which is impressive in the current selloff. While many big-name tech stocks have lost considerable value this year, EA has managed to sustain its outperformance. EA’s past performance has been good, but investors are wondering if the stock can continue its long-term upward trajectory in 2016 amid the market correction. Given the current market sentiment, it is possible that EA may struggle at least in the short-term. However, I ...
    On January 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Johnson Controls Misses Q1 Earnings And Revenues

    Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI – Analyst Report) is a supplier of automotive interiors, batteries, and other control equipment. The company is gaining from its market expansion in China. It anticipates significant growth opportunities in China. In addition, Johnson Controls will benefit from the acquisitions and mergers that it undertakes to provide customers with world-class technologies through strong complementary brands and channels. However, the divestiture of several businesses has been weighing on the Johnson Controls’ revenues and profits. Johnson Controls also faces strong competition from major domestic and international manu...
    On January 28, 2016 / By