With a plethora of mid-level announcements coming out during the course of the day, we could get quite a bit of volatility on Friday. However, we think that some longer-term chart gazing might be the way to go. Because of this, we will choose to continue to follow longer-term moves. Gold looking for value hunters Gold markets fell during the day on Thursday, but found a bit of support at the $1110 level, an area that was resistive recently. Because of this, it looks as if the call buyers are reentering the market and they will try to push the gold markets higher. At this point in time, we only buy calls. USD/JPY looking to break out With the ...
Oil’s continued plunge is vying with China for the early financial headlines in 2016. Yet many U.S. investors are missing the most important aspect of oil’s collapse: the dramatic effect oil’s falling prices are having on Saudi Arabia. In November 2015, I speculated that the Saudis may have to devalue their currency, the riyal, versus the U.S. dollar for the first time since 1986. Today my prediction looks prescient, as this supposed long-shot, black swan event is now becoming a distinct possibility. Saudi Arabia’s Gigantic Budget Problem The low price of oil – caused in part by the Saudis’ market share war – has blown a hole i...
Real estate brokers are still reeling from the news that December existing home sales rocketed by a blockbuster 14.7%, to an annualized 5.46 million units. And now I hear that Apple (AAPL) is planning on building a second new research and development campus that will need 20,000 new high tech workers. The housing crisis here in the San Francisco Bay area just went from bad to worse. It is all fresh fuel for a continuation in the bull market for US residential real estate, not just for this year, but for another decade. Friends in the industry tell me the eye popping numbers were due to the implementation of the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosur...
I used to get freely distributed emails (i.e. non-premium) from a well regarded service based in the UK. They struck me as very smart and very buttoned down. What they didn’t strike me as was guys who have worked on a manufacturing floor. When I saw their narrative remaining bullish the likes of Fanuc due to its Robotics component (in the face of what I knew was a near meltdown about to take place in Machine Tools) I quit their email list because I felt their analysis itself was too robotic. As noted before, Fanuc is a Machine Tool builder (and a damn good one) with a cool Robotics angle; not the other way around. Here is Fanuc’s latest ...
Facebook (FB) has had quite the day! Currently up almost 17%, the stock continues to make a push towards new all-time highs, and there is a strong chance that by the end of the day it will have achieved that. The frustrations for traders who put a premium on managing risk is that unless you are willing to take the chance on a major move downward, holding FB, or any stock for that matter, is not a possibility. For me personally, I don’t do the earnings plays because for every Facebook there is an eBay (EBAY) that will crush your portfolio with a 13% sell-off. And since buying or shorting a stock with a belief that you actually know w...
The Canadian dollar continues being one of the most active currencies out there. After recovering together with oil prices, it shot higher with them, with a more substantial move: USD/CAD dipped all the way to 1.3947, below the round and important 1.40 as WTI almost touched $35. But from there, we went back to the drawing board, 1.4050 at the time of writing. What’s going on there? OPEC is only around a third of global oil production and Saudi Arabia is a third of OPEC. Everybody wants Saudi Arabia to cut production, but are not willing to cut their own within OPEC. The case is the strongest with Iran, that has just come back online from...
Altria Group Inc. (MO – Analyst Report) is one of the leading manufacturers of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products in the U.S. Altria has seen soft volume trends for the past few quarters, due to a general shift away from tobacco products amid accelerating prices of cigarettes and worldwide anti-tobacco campaigns. The company is thus putting greater focus on the growing electronic cigarettes to boost sales. Altria has been expanding its Mark e-cigarettes nationwide after its successful launch in Aug 2014, in order to boost its sales. Further, the company’s subsidiary, Nu Mark, launched another version of Mark Ten – MarkTen ...
Rotten Apple? Apple Posts Disappointing Results Apple Inc. (AAPL) is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cuperti...
Some years ago I came to the conclusion that it would be wise to have a permanent footprint outside the U.S. It was a wise decision from many points of view. Living in more than one country allows you to vastly broaden your range of experiences, connections, and possibilities. Frankly, living in just one country is not just limiting. It’s potentially dangerous. The question is, which of the world’s countries is “best”? There are a lot of possible answers to that question, and they change over time. When my grandparents left the Old World, there was no question that the U.S. was the best choice. I’m extremely happy they chose to move...
Donald Trump has been savaged by economists and media aligned with establishment candidates for tough positions on trade—media on imports to force China to the negotiating table. Actually, he’s got it right. Establishment Democrats and Republicans embrace free trade because it puts free markets first with benefits any decently trained economist should extoll. Unfortunately, trade with China and many nations is hardly market-driven. It hurts U.S. growth and victimizes America’s families. Obama’s six-year expansion has averaged 2.2 percent annual economic growth and added 13.6 million jobs. Coming off a similar bout with double-dig...