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  • Finance 0

    E Is The S&P Really Overvalued?

    Being British, I have no dog in the US Presidential Candidate fight, but something said today about Donald Trump made me think. The UK’s Daily Mail correspondent covering The Don’s stop in Iowa wheeled out a slight on Combover’s business acumen: “Critics often claim that Trump’s net worth is put by the Bloomberg financial service at $2.9 billion. Had he merely invested his inheritance in a stock market tracker fund, he’d have more than $8 billion.” [Does “critics often claim” mean “one of Michael Bloomberg’s spinmeisters just told me?” Never mind, let’s crack on....
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Rationales To Friday’s Powerful Thrust

    There is a long list rationalizing Friday’s powerful thrust. The list runs the gamut from the return of central banker domination of markets to the end of corrective market action running a slew of short-sellers. From the renewed push on risk-averse investors chasing yield again to new glory times and a full recovery of what often the same guys called a bear market days ago. (Of course latter arguments defy the earnings recession issue as now prevails, and would persist for some time ‘even if’ currency devaluations were halted.)   You know what’s missing from that list, (or the loss of attached behavior to Oil at le...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Speculators Added To Long Position Ahead Of BOJ

    The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report covers the five sessions through January 26, the day before the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting and three days before the BOJ’s announcement. Speculators hardly changed their positioning during the period. There was no gross position adjustments that we call significant, a bar we set at 10k contracts. Indeed, in the most recent reporting period, there were only four gross position changes larger than 5k contracts. The bears added 5.8k and 5.2k contracts to the gross short positions of sterling and the Swiss franc respectively. This was sufficient to swing the net franc position short (-4....
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Bank Of Japan – Ringing In The Endgame?

    Let’s Do More of What Doesn’t Work It is the Keynesian mantra: the fact that the policies recommended by Keynesians and monetarists, i.e., deficit spending and money printing, routinely fail to bring about the desired results is not seen as proof that they simply don’t work. It is regarded as evidence that there hasn’t been enough spending and printing yet. BoJ governor Haruhiko “Fly” Kuroda: is that a windshield I’m seeing? Photo credit: Yuya Shino / Reuters At the Bank of Japan this mantra has been gospel for as long as we can remember. Japan has always exhibited an especially strong penchant for central planning. We still r...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    3 Deeply Undervalued Stocks With Great Dividends

    The brutal month of January is now mercifully over. Stocks have not had such a monthly drubbing since February 2009 just as equities were finding their nadir in the equity debacle triggered by the financial crisis. Europe, Japan, and China entered official bear market territory during the month and are down 20% or more from previous highs. Many sectors of the domestic market also entered bear markets including small caps, biotech, and transports. Energy and commodities, which have long been clawed by the bear, had another dismal month. Despite increased concerns about China, worldwide growth, the strong dollar, the current “profit recession...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    As Goes January, So Goes The Year…

    And so we say goodbye to January 2016. There is an old saying on Wall Street that as goes January, so goes the year.  This is also known in some circles as the ‘January barometer.’ If this is the case it is going to be a good year for precious metals and a very wild ride for stocks. It certainly did not ‘work’ last year, which also forecast a good year for the metals and a bum year for stocks. The metals continued their bear market decline, but stocks were in fact down to flat. Ah, if only life and forecasting was that simple so that a single metric would suffice....
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Q4 Earnings Season: All Around Growth Challenges

    We get into the heart of the Q4 earnings season this week, with 485 companies reporting quarterly results, including 121 S&P 500 members. With results from 201 index members already on the books, we will have seen Q4 results from over 63% the S&P 500 members by the end of this week. The picture emerging from the results that we have seen already is one of all around weakness, with growth hard to come by in the slowing global economy, the strong U.S. dollar, and weakness in the oil and other commodity sectors. This isn’t a new problem, we have been discussing these headwinds the last few reporting cycles as well. In other words, the ...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    USDCHF Looks To Push Higher Towards 1.0327 Resistance Zone

    USDCHF: Having closed further higher on a follow through on the back of its previous week strength, USDCHF looks to push higher towards 1.0327 resistance zone. On the downside, support lies at the 1.0300 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.0250 level and then the 1.0200 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.0150 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.0400 level where a break will clear the way for more strength to occur towards the 1.0450 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.0500 level. All in all, U...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Apple, FANGS And Monetary Fools

    This week the great tree of Apple (AAPL) finally stopped growing toward the sky. During its latest quarter, in fact, i-Pad sales were down 25%, Mac volume came in 4% lower and even the i-Phone barely breached the flat line. In all, Apple’s mighty machine of double digit growth posted a revenue gain of just 1.7% over prior year, while its net income was essentially flat. The real news, however, was that management is now projecting an actual 11% y/y decline in sales during the current quarter. Don’t get me wrong. Apple has been the most awesome fount of product invention, global production and supply chain proficiency, logis...
    On January 30, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Sub Zero – Financial Review

    Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) DOW + 396 = 16,466 SPX + 46 = 1940 NAS + 107 = 4613 10 Y – .05 = 1.93% OIL + .46 = 33.68 GOLD + 2.80 = 1118.80 SILV + .02 = 14.34 Yesterday was the last trading day of the month. For the week, the Dow gained 2.3%, the S&P added 1.7% and the Nasdaq increased 0.5%. That left the Dow down 5.5% for the month, or a loss of 959 points. The Nasdaq lost 7.9%, or 394 points in January, its largest monthly loss since May 2010. The S&P was down 103 points, or 5%, although at one point last week the S&P was down 11% since the start of the year. An index of US ...
    On January 30, 2016 / By