Steven Poloz’s refrain of a Bank of Canada rate cut that had become the preferred bet as the Loonie dropped brought a magnificent reversal for the CAD. However, toward the end of the week, the CAD rally stalled and CAD-crosses looked to oil for direction. For a majority of the week, a ‘Dash for Trash’ in Oil assets seemed sustainable as news of a coordinated global oil production cut appeared in the making. However, on Thursday, the news became obvious that such a plan was unlikely to develop, and the elusiveness of such a plan made Oil and, therefore, CAD unable to hold gains. One oil trader, Gerrit Zambo of BayernLB stated, “Don...
I must confess that a recession is on my mind. It is the decline in the markets coupled with the recession currently occurring in the goods producing sectors which has me looking harder for a decline in the service sector (which continues to grow). Likely, if a slowing begins in the service sector in the next few months, it is entirely possible that the recession would be marked in 4Q2015. On the other hand, if the service sector remains relatively strong it is unlikely a recession will be seen at this time. I have no love for the way the economy is measured.In business, your organization is no stronger than your weakest link. The links ...
As extensively discussed yesterday in the aftermath of the BOJ’s stunning decision to cut rates to negative for the first time in history (a decision which it appears was taken due to Davos peer pressure, a desire to prop up stock markets and to punish Yen longs, and an inability to further boost QE), there will be consequences – some good, mostly bad. As Goldman’s Naohiko Baba it appears was taken , NIRP in Japan will not actually boost the economy: “We do have concerns about the policy transmission channel. Policy Board Member Koji Ishida, who voted against the new measures, said that “a further decline in JGB ...
Microcap stocks are notoriously hard nuts to crack. They are the part of the capitalization-weighted investment universe that is typically less liquid, transparent and profitable than large-cap choices. Investors do have some indicators they can use to estimate turning points in the microcap sector’s aggregate health. A small number of microcap ETFs help diversify away company-specific risk. The NFIB’s Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) is one possible proxy for the sentiment of small business owner-investors. It combines data on both future plans and current results. The December 2015 report puts the Index of Small Business ...
Shares of online giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) were down 13.4% in after-market trading on 28 Jan 2016, more than giving back the 8.9% gain they had made on the day of the earnings call, after the company reported disappointing Q4 2015 results that failed to meet analysts’ projections of results. Amazon reported revenue of $35.75B, good for 21.9% Y/Y growth, but $180M below consensus analyst estimates. It was Amazon’s bottom line performance, however, that did the company in. Amazon reported net income of $482M, or diluted EPS of $1.00, a record by the company and a huge 122% Y/Y growth compared to the prior year’s comparable quart...
For the stock market, 2016 has started off with a solid “thud.” In just the first month of the year the S&P 500 is down 7%. In the income focused sectors, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLE) is down 7%, the Alerian MLP index has lost 13% and the SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSE: RWR) is down 4.5%. The REIT ETF is down 10% in the last three months. General market declines like this put every stock on sale and times like these are an opportunity to pick up shares of the most popular income stocks at a lower price/higher yield than you will typically find. In every business sector there are those stocks that do a very good job...
We evaluated 35 different companies this week to determine whether they are suitable for Defensive Investors, those unwilling to do substantial research, or Enterprising Investors, those who are willing to do such research. We also put each company through the ModernGraham valuation model based on Benjamin Graham’s value investing formulas in order to determine an intrinsic value for each. Out of those 35 companies, only 18 were found to be undervalued or fairly valued and suitable for either Defensive or Enterprising Investors. The Elite The following companies were found to be suitable for either the Defensive Investor or Enterprising...
Last Friday, Bank of Japan’s president, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced that the BOJ will institute negative interest policy to encourage banks to lend, in what I consider to be a desperate attempt to boost Japan’s economy. A negative interest rate will be applied to a “portion” of funds banks have on deposit at the BOJ. An interest rate of 0.01% will be applied to other holdings. The BOJ also announced that it will maintain its 80 trillion yen ($666 billion) a year in government-bond purchases. Risk asset markets rallied on the news of more central bank (spiked) punch. However, I doubt that negative interest rates will do much, if any...
Factoids. By the waters of Babylon, there we sat down and we invented tacking geometry over time, about 1600 years before it was supposedly discovered. The Babyonians were watching Jupiter in the skies, AKA the god Murdoch, no relative of Rupert who just reappointed his son James back into managing a chunk of the empire after letting him go during the UK hacking crisis. King Tut’s wet nurse’s mummy has been found. She also was his sister. Nobody besides his sister was good enough to be pharaoh’s wet nurse (or wife.) You can go to the Velasquez exhibit to see what that leads to. Now for the real news: The latest acronym for e...