Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    Economic Events Of The Coming Week – 1/31/2016

    Monday: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be released globally. The Chinese January print should draw particular interest, currently at 49.7 points. In the U.K., December Mortgage Approvals data will see light. In the U.S., December Personal Income and Personal Spending data will see light. The ISM Survey will also be released in the U.S. Alphabet is scheduled to release the fourth quarter’s Earnings. Tuesday: January Unemployment data will be released for Spain and Germany… boiling doing to the Eurozone aggregate print, to see light later that day. Pfizer Q4 earnings release is also due. Wednesday: January Services and...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC Ignore The Sirens Of The Stock Market

    The Bank of Japan did something Friday that took the market by surprise, something the bank’s own governor had repeatedly rejected as a potential course of action. Yes, the BOJ joined the ECB and put a minus sign in front of its main policy rate, cutting interest rates into negative territory. Markets reacted as we’ve come to expect when central banks do unconventional things. The Yen dropped, bonds rallied and stocks rose. Not just Japanese bonds and stocks either; basically the world was up Friday, enough to turn a negative week into a positive one, the S&P 500 up 2.5% Friday and 1.75% for the week. The falling Yen was, of course, a...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Chinese Banker Explains Why There Is No Way Out

    Over the past year, we have frequently warned that the biggest financial risk (if not social, which in the form of soaring worker unrest is a far greater threat to Chinese civilization) threatening China, is its runaway non-performing loans, which at anywhere between 10 and 20% of total bank assets, mean that China is one chaotic default away from collapsing into the post “Minsky Moment” singlarity where it can no longer rollover its bad debt, leading to a debt supernova and full financial collapse. And as China’s total leverage keeps rising, and according to at least one estimate is now a gargantuan 350% of GDP (in...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    BoJ Makes Stealth Move To Negative Rates, Pressure On To China

    Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral The Yen put in its largest annual loss after the Bank of Japan made a surprise move to negative rates. USD/JPY: Shock and Some Awe (critical resistance zone in 121.50-122 area). USD/JPY – Don’t Forget About the 26-Year Trendline. Track changes in positioning and sentiment in real-time to filter trends and opportunistic trade ideas. Confidence is a pretty important thing in a financial system. After all, in a fiat-based monetary system, all that we really have is faith. There’s no gold or silver backing the currency, and while I’m not saying that’s a ‘good’ thing since pretty much all of ...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Inovio Shares Up This Week On New Vaccine Trials Targeting Virus Outbreaks

    On Thursday Jan 28, 2016 shares of Inovio (Nasdaq:INO) closed the day up 7.64% after the company announced that it would start to recruit for a MERS vaccine trial with Gene One Life Science. MERS stands for Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, and is a respiratory illness that is contagious. Symptoms of MERS are: Cough, Fever, Shortness of Breath. This trial will be the first MERS vaccine ever to be tested in human subjects, which should shed more light on finding a possible treatment for the disease. There are currently no approved regulatory treatments for MERS, therefore Inovio and Gene One life Science have the ability to be the firs...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Bond Market Week In Review: Did The Fed Make A Mistake?

    Did the Fed make a mistake when it raised rates last month? Obviously, we won’t know until we see more data. While the economic numbers through December confirmed the Fed’s decision, post January 1 data has been troubling. Retail sales are weak, industrial production is stalling, the leading economic indicators declined .2% and the coincident numbers are rising at a slower pace. An article by Peter Coy of Bloomberg explains both sides. The bears base their argument on the following data points: 1.) weaker corporate profits, 2.) declining stock prices, 3.) weak oil, and 4.) declining import prices.In contrast, the bulls look to the follo...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Eyes Key Support At The 1.0710 Level

    EUR/USD: With EUR taking back most of its earlier gains for the week to close marginally higher on Friday, EUR/USD eyes key support at the  1.0710 level. On the downside,  support is located at the 1.0750 level and if violated, expect more weakness to happen towards the 1.0700 level. Further down,  support lies at the 1.0650 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0600 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0550 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance is comes at 1.0900 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.0950 level. Further up, resista...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Videogame Stock Round Up: Earnings & Sony’s Internal Restructuring In Focus

    Earnings reports from Sony Corp (SNE – Analyst Report), Microsoft Corp (MSFT – Analyst Report) and Electronic Arts (EA – Analyst Report) dominated headlines this week. Apart from earnings, Sony was in the news with its announcement of consolidation of all of its PlayStation hardware, software and network operations under one roof — Sony Interactive Entertainment. Among other smaller developments, EA pulled out of E3 to launch a separate event while Take Two Interactive Software (TTWO – Snapshot Report) signed a deal with World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE – Analyst Report) to produce more WWE themed t...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    New Month, Same Drivers

    On the very first trading day of the year, the Nikkei, DAX, and S&P 500 gapped lower, setting the tone to a particularly challenging month for investors.  The last week and a half has been better, and this will likely carry over into the start of the new month.  Before January could slip into the history books, the Bank of Japan sprung a last-minute surprise by adopting a tiered system that includes a minus 10 bp charge to new excess reserves. BOJ’s Kuroda was understood to have told a Davos audience a week earlier that the central bank was not considering negative interest rates.  Speculators in the futures market went into ...
    On January 31, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is The BOJ Move The Latest Volley In A Global Currency War?

    The world economy continues to shrink and what happens on one side of the globe has a boomerang effect everywhere else. The Bank of Japan shocked markets Friday by introducing negative interest rates in an attempt to push inflation and growth by pressuring people away from saving money and towards spending more. The drastic action had the immediate desired effect of depressing the yen to a new low. Is the BOJ move the latest volley in a global currency war between regions? Europe, which is battling its own economic stagnation does not want to see the euro gain in value against other major currencies as it would make European exports more expe...
    On January 31, 2016 / By