The Australian Dollar continued to recover for a second week, bolstered by better-than-expected inflation data and firming market-wide risk appetite. The former weighed against RBA interest rate cut expectations while the latter fueled demand for higher-yielding assets, offering support to the sentiment-linked currency. Looking ahead however, upside follow-through may be compromised as a relentless stream of high-profile event risk promises to unleash sharp volatility. Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral On the domestic front, the RBA monetary policy announcement is in the spotlight. Policymakers are widely expected to ...
Major retailers in the United States are shutting down hundreds of stores, and shoppers are reporting alarmingly bare shelves in many retail locations that are still open all over the country. It appears that the retail apocalypse that made so many headlines in 2015 has gone to an entirely new level as we enter 2016. As economic activity and Internet retailers capture more of the market, brick and mortar retailers are cutting their losses.This is especially true in areas that are on the lower portion of the income scale. In impoverished urban centers all over the nation, it is not uncommon to find entire malls that have now been completely a...
It’s been nearly a year since a grinning Doug McMillon recorded a video message to the world in which he explained that WalMart (WMT) was set to raise the minimum wage for its lowest paid employees. After all, McMillon said, “it’s our people that make the difference.” Eleven months later, those “people” (the lowly shelf stockers and cashiers) aren’t materially better off than they were before, because handing someone $10/hour instead of $9 is such a small concession that you might as well have done nothing. In other words, $10 is no more of a “living wage” than $9 is. But while the impact on the retailer’s legions of hou...
This past week Apple (AAPL) posted the highest quarterly earnings in American history. The reward for this incredible feat was a decline in share prices that chopped approximately $30 Billion off Apple’s market cap (that’s like wiping out the value of a company the size of FedEx overnight). During the earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook said, “Beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential about the China market and the large opportunities ahead of us, and we are maintaining our investment plans.” That should have calmed long-term investors’ nerves, but clearly some were not impressed. Cook sa...
We have a lot of Chinese numbers coming out during the day so we think it’s going to be a very risk sensitive session on Monday. That being said, we look at a few of the charts. EUR/USD falling The EUR/USD pair fell rather hard during the day on Friday, and it looks like we are going to head back down to the bottom of the consolidation area that we have been in for some time. With this, we are buyers of puts on signs of weakness. AUD/USD struggling The AUD/USD pair tried to break out during the session on Friday, but struggled at the 0.71 handle. By doing so, we turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star, and as a result we feel th...
Markets were setting up for a push lower, but Friday’s upside break from consolidations triggered a wave of buying (and short covering). The buying was accompanied with higher volume accumulation. Shorts were left squealing by Friday’s action, and new shorts will need to wait until Nov-Dec consolidations are tested before new positions are entered. Until then, short covering and long buyers rule the day. The S&P has taken the first step of a rally to take it back to the supply zone of 2,000. Friday’s action was accompanied by a MACD trigger ‘buy’ and On-Balance-Volume ‘buy’ trigger. The Nasdaq ...
After last week’s Fed statement, the market will be looking for some additional insight when Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks Monday. From MarketWatch: It is likely to be standing room only at the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday as the market strains to hear Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s latest views on the economy and interest-rate policy. “Obviously Fischer is going to get a fair bit of attention, coming so soon after the January statement and with a fair bit of question of what they meant,” said Michael Hanson, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The Most Important Story Of Our Investment Lifetimes Thi...
Chart analysis is one of the most widely misunderstood forms of financial market forecasting. It has been around for centuries, and Charles Dow, the founder of The Wall Street Journal and creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was the first prominent chart analyst in North America during the late 19th century. He realized that financial market behavior is a reflection of both rational data, such as economic activity and earnings growth, and irrational human emotions, such as greed and fear. In order to develop reliable forecasts for future market behavior, it is necessary to understand and analyze both the rational and the irrational dr...
Insider buying declined last week with insiders buying $27.94 million of stock compared to $56.58 million in the week prior. Selling on the other hand increased with insiders selling $267.17 million of stock last week compared to $112.27 million in the week prior. The S&P 500 rallied 1.75% last week after we saw insider selling drop to its lowest level in four years. While the rally was broad based, we saw big increases in some long suffering energy names as you can see from the 34% gain in Consol Energy (CNX) and the nearly 10% gain in Kinder Morgan (KMI) in the chart below. Pull back the curtain a year and this rally pales in compar...
Tesla (TSLA) supremo Elon Musk has once again been speaking about the future of the company, floating some particularly interesting product ideas in Hong Kong. Probably the most notable of these is the idea of a Tesla submarine; certainly this forthcoming Tesla idea has generated a significant amount of headlines. Image credit: Theophilus Chin Musk talks Tesla Model 3 Musk was speaking at the StartmeupHK festival, where the CEO of the innovative electric car company was talking about his vision of the future direction of the company. Perhaps financial issues have focused the collective mind at Tesla, as the stock market performance of the ...