A ridiculous fuss continues to be made in some quarters about the ratio of “registered” COMEX gold to total futures open interest. For example, a 26th January ZeroHedge article includes the following chart and implies that the high (542:1) ratio of open interest to “registered” gold could soon result in a COMEX default. To put it politely, this is unadulterated hogwash. As explained HERE, the ratio cited in the above-linked article is meaningless, and, in any case, there are now about 15 ounces of physical gold in COMEX warehouses for every ounce that will potentially have to be delivered during the current delivery month. And as e...
Stocks finished the month of January with two straight winning weeks, but investors are still glad to see the calendar flip as those winners only cut the S&P’s loss to 5% for the month. With growth worries abounding amid troubling signs from China and as oil languishes below $35 per barrel, the manufacturing readings from China, Europe, and the U.S. due out on Monday will be essential to whether the new month continues the uptrend of the end of January or the dour tone that dominated the early half of the month. MACRO NEWS: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged following its policy meeting this week, as almost universall...
Market comment: Equities sold off aggressively in the beginning of the year making this January one of the worst of the last 20 years. The market managed to start a small rebound just in the last few days leaving traders pondering if this is another temporary correction or the start of a bear market. In absence of evidence of a more pronounced global economic slowdown, the recent selling looks overdone. Many markets are back to prices last seen several years ago and this means that some bargains are starting to emerge. The main driver of this correction was commodity prices hitting multi year lows and oil breaking below the 30$ a barrel resis...
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: * Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months. * Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months. * Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week. * Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates. Let’s take a l...
Gold: Having the commodity continued to hold on to its recovery strength, Gold looks to build up on recovery strength above the 1100.00 zone. On the downside, support comes in at the 1110.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1100.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1090.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1080.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1130.00 level where a break will aim at the 1140.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1150.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1160.00 level. All in all, G...
After a wild January we expect a strong start to February: early on Monday we’ll get independent Chinese data. This is followed all week long with a buildup to the NFP, with Wednesday featuring the key releases ahead of the big day on Friday. Also note an antipodean Tuesday focus and the BOE’s rate decision on Thursday. Fasten your seat-belts. Here is a video preview of what’s about to happen:...
BOJ COMES TO THE RESCUE This week reminded me of the recent AFC Championship game as the Denver Broncos defeated the New England Patriots in the final seconds of the game by foiling the 2-point conversion attempt. The market, like the Patriots, struggled all week with any ground gained one day, lost the next. Fortunately, for investors, instead of the final play of the game being an interception sending the Patriots into defeat, it was the BOJ completing the conversion and sending the “Bulls” on a rampage on Friday. However, the announcement by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement negative interest rates in a desperate last attempt to b...
Fourth quarter GDP was estimate at just +0.68906% Q/Q in its advance statement. There is no more “residual seasonality” left with which to obfuscate the deficiency in 2015; the year ended as it had begun, under great suspicion. Unlike most economic context given as commentary, that actually makes sense as both markets and other more fruitful economic measures have been suggesting all along. At best, GDP has exhibited great instability which is itself an indication of weakness since GDP was constructed to be the most charitable interpretation of economic growth. Instead of riding into the sunset of QE-inspired success, the economy last yea...
Oh no another Gold Stock bottom caller!. Hang on! Well its gotta happen at some time! Previous Post: Gold D Wave completed, next ! and Gold and silver stocks near the end of their crash A G7 country (Japan) has moves to negative interest rates (NIRP). Well having YEN under the bed earns more the YEN at the bank! Gold also protects you from bentral bankers nutters! Get the feeling that gold and silver will now creep onto more portfolios! Gold stocks will follow to some degree gold, may not be rock stars just yet but the environment is changing for this bruised sector! The last week of Jan 2016 price action in NEM was a good ‘sign of...
With a volatile January behind us I was able to make several small purchases in my accounts as I wanted to use up free trades that were credited and set to expire at the end of the month. I managed to scrounge up a few hundred dollars per trade and figured at zero commission I might as well take advantage and put even small dollar amounts to work earning passive income. With that being said, I’d like to highlight my recent small buys. I have added to my taxable account 11.0000 shares at $35.12 for a total investment of $386.32 in Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM). With this recent purchase my taxable account holdings in ADM now to...