Weekly Market Outlook It took a while to get started… the first four days of last week, to be precise. But, once the bulls got rolling on Friday, they didn’t look back. Thanks to that day’s 2.5% advance from the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY), the index finished the week 1.7% higher, and perhaps more importantly, finished the week above a couple of key resistance lines. It remains to be seen if Friday was a fluke or an omen of what’s to come. As it stands right now, however, the momentum is clearly bullish. We’ll dissect last week’s action below, right after a closer look at this week’s and last weekR...
That the Fed has been boxed in by unleashing destructive monetary policies to “fix” decades of prior policy mistakes, is something we have been warning about since our first day. And, with every passing day that the Fed and its central bank peers pile up error upon errorto offset prior mistakes, the day approaches when this latest bubble, which some have dubbed it the “central banks all-in” bubble, will burst as well: Friday’s shocking announcement of NIRP by the BOJ just brought us one step closer to the monetary doomsday. However, the one saving grace for the central banks was that as long as none of the mark...
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.62%) are down -0.35% and European stocks are down -0.71% as Chinese economic concerns intensified after Chinese manufacturing activity last month contracted by the most in 3-1/3 years. Concerns over a slowdown in China have also undercut crude oil and copper prices and dragged energy and commodity producer stocks lower as well. On the positive side for European stocks, the German Jan Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised higher. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.98%, Hong Kong -0.45%, China -1.78%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +0.76%, Singapore -1.02%, South Korea +0.68%, In...
Trading opportunities for currency pair: the Bank of Japan has brought in negative interest rates – minus 0.1%. The yen has weakened against the dollar by 290 points. If the stock markets aren’t swinging, we could see a growth in the pair to 123.45 after a rebound to 120.20. Further growth to cease with a close of the daily candle below 119.55. Current situation The Bank of Japan brought in negative interest rates on Friday – minus 0.1%. The regulator undertook such a decision in order to overcome deflation which has been going on for the past decade. The central bank will continue to purchase state bonds in order to increase the amoun...
CFDs are very popular trading instruments which offer the benefits of flexibility, global access and the potential to enjoy handsome profits. In essence, a contract for difference is an agreement between the buyer (investor) and the seller (broker). The investor predicts that the value of an underlying asset will move in a specific direction during a specific period of time. However, he or she never actually holds this asset; their position is only mirrored by the CFD. Should this prediction prove to be true, the CFD is liquidated and the funds are then distributed to the trader. However, the ability to leverage one’s funds is another criti...
EUR/USD closed the last week of January slightly lower but still in range.. What is really going on? The team at CIBC explains: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Mario Draghi’s punishment for disappointing markets in December was swift, with investors bidding up the value of the euro during the following trading days. Although EUR/USD has settled down, the need for further easing is more dire than what’s suggested in just the EUR/USD cross. The trade-weighted euro index has been moving in the opposite direction. And it’s recent gains, which were the result of the sharp depreciation in sterling, will weigh on the monetary union’...
It didn’t take much to fizzle Friday’s Japan NIRP-driven euphoria, when first ugly Chinese manufacturing (and service) PMI data reminded the world just what the bull in the, well, China shop is… … leading to a 1.8% drop on the first day of February after Chinese stocks slid 23% in January with the nation’s manufacturing sector faces strong galewind challenges as the government plans to reduce excess industrial capacity and unleash troubling mass unemployment, while a weakening currency is spurring capital outflows. And then it was about oil once again, when Goldman itself – which recently has been quietly cha...
In the midst of the fourth-quarter 2015 earnings season, carriers seem to have a fresh challenge to cope with. The spread of the mosquito-borne Zika virus in more than 20 countries, particularly in South and Central America, has set off alarm bells causing many carriers to offer rescheduling/refunds for tickets purchased for travel to areas where the virus is now wreaking havoc. Why the Panic? According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), mosquito bites (primarily of an infected mosquito of the Aedes species) are responsible for spreading the virus. Mosquitoes of this species have been responsible for spreading other vira...
A Negated Breakdown There have been remarkable gyrations in the gold sector lately. The typical rebound out of a November/December low (typical in recent years after the end of the tax loss selling period) was initially cut short in January in the course of the global stock market decline. This was a bit surprising, because it was widely held that the recovery in the gold price was a result of said stock market decline. Photo via genius.com We suspect that in it was initially still widely expected that stock market weakness was just a fluke and that the downtrend in the gold price would therefore soon resume. Moreover, base metal mining sto...
Trading opportunities for currency pair: the euro/dollar has slid to the trend line. From here we could see a bounce since Monday’s movements usually go against Friday’s. The bounce level will tell us how the sellers are set up. A growth to 1.0938 means we should prepare for a break through 1.0985 and then 1.1025. Expectations that the ECB will extend its program of easing monetary policy will put pressure on the euro until March. Due to this, a break of 1.0800 and a strengthening of the price under 1.0775 (daily candle’s close) means we should consider the euro falling all the way to 1.0630. A growth above 1.0886 will halt any fall. B...