We all know by now the year got off to a rough start in stock markets around the world. Transports and Russell 2000 are the leaders to the downside over the past 90-days. The declines of late took both of them down to 5-year rising channels, where they hit rising support two weeks and small rallies have taken place, after hitting support. Now both of these weak links, are facing falling resistance at (1) above. I humbly feel where we are a month from now could be a big deal, as these two find themselves caught between a rock and a hard spot (support and resistance). If markets break above resistance, February could look the polar opposite of ...
Several important economic releases were announced last week and they have important implications for traders. For starters, there was a major announcement from the Bank of Japan, and the US economy reported growth figures that were lackluster in Q4, 2015. With negative interest rates in Japan, there are fears that reciprocal measures will be adopted by other countries to remain competitive. Now there are cracks beginning to form in the US economy and the US has also ended a 40-year ban on the export of crude oil. China continues to feel the pressure from plunging growth figures and emerging market economies are facing steep revenue declin...
It has been a wild ride in the stock markets over the last couple of months, but the extreme fear we experienced for a brief time now appears to have abated somewhat, and Friday’s move from the lows felt very much like bear capitulation with a rally now underway. However, while the short term looks bright, in broad strokes the stock market remains fragile and there are a number of yellow flags waving in terms of the technical picture, with a couple of red ones flashing too. 2015 was the first year ending in a ‘5’ not to give us a positive return in the history of the S&P500. Although this may sound like a minor niggle I would disagr...
The Bank of Japan surprised investors last week by introducing negative interest rates. At the World Economic Forum in Davos a couple weeks ago, BOJ Governor Kuroda appeared to deny that such a move was under consideration. The market’s focus, like ours, was on the pace by which it was expanding its balance sheet (JPY80 trillion a year). The FAQ format may be the most effective way to explain what the BOJ did, why and the implications for investors. What did the Bank of Japan do? At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, on January 29, the BOJ decided by a 5-4 vote to introduce a three-tiered reserve system that includes a negati...
W.W. Grainger (GWW) is a time-tested business that has rewarded investors with 44 consecutive years of dividend increases. Like many other industrial companies, weak energy markets, sluggish growth in China, and foreign currency headwinds are challenging GWW’s current business trends. As a result, the stock’s dividend yield sits at 2.4%, which is well above its five-year average dividend yield of 1.5%. With a sturdy business model, healthy free cash flow generation, and decent long-term growth potential, GWW is a dividend growth stock we are watching for our Top 20 Dividend Stocks portfolio. Business Overview GWW was founded in 1...
The data this month showed good income growth (at market expectations) – and spending growth weak (below market expectations). The market looks at current values (not real inflation adjusted) and was expecting (from Bloomberg):. Consensus Range Consensus Actual Personal Income – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.5 % 0.3 % +0.3% Consumer Spending – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.5 % 0.1 % +0.0% PCE Price Index — M/M change -0.1 % to 0.1 % 0.0 % -0.1% Core PCE price index – M/M change 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 % +0.0% The monthly fluctuations are confusing. Looking at the inflation adjusted 3 month trend rate of growth, income growth tren...
Haruhiko Kuroda’s move to NIRP and Mario Draghi’s implicit promise to ramp up PSPP in March underscore the extent to which Janet Yellen has made a policy mistake by hiking at a time when the US economy (not to mention the global economy) looks to be decelerating and the disinflationary impulse looks to be gathering steam. January marked a rather inauspicious start to the new year with wild swings in Chinese markets fueling volatility across the globe and crude carnage taking its toll on investors’ collective psyche. Oil managed to ramp but China is still a (big) problem, as we explained this morning in the overnight wrap...
Photo Credit: Mr.TinDC Monday, February 1 Tuesday, February 2 Wednesday, February 3 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Information Technology – Internet Software & Services | Reports February 1, after the close. The Estimize consensus is right in-line with Wall Street on both the top and bottom-line on this name. EPS is expected to come in at $8.17, with revenues of $16.9B. Both of these numbers have gradually been revised upward since the Q3 report, by 5% and 2%, respectively. What to Watch: Late this past summer, the internet behemoth announced it was reorganizing under the name Alphabet Inc. Google will continue on as the company’s legacy...
Oh no, there goes China again! This weekend it was more horrific PMI numbers out of China as January manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 3 years, suggesting the world’s second largest economy is off to a weak start in 2016 (and adding to the case for near-term stimulus). The official Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.4 in January, compared with the previous month’s reading of 49.7, below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. It is the weakest index reading since Aug, 2012 and below the median 49.6 forecast from a Reuters poll of leading economorons....