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How Hard Will Falling Oil Prices Hit Exxon Mobil?
Photo Credit: Mike Mozart Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Energy – Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels | Reports February 2, Before Market Opens Energy giant, Exxon Mobil Corporation, is scheduled to report Q4 2015 earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. Despite posting a positive EPS surprise in 5 of the past 7 quarters, analyst expectations remain bleak as the price of Brent Crude Oil and WTI continue to decline. Chevron released mixed results on Friday, with EPS coming in well below the consensus, but reported revenues beating expectations by $140M. This quarter, the Estimize community is expecting revenue of $53.9 billion, a sta... -
Finance 0
Do Stocks Need A Bull Market In Commodities?
Commodities are up, stocks are up. Commodities are down, stocks are down. This has been the story of 2016 thus far with a remarkably high correlation of .96 between the S&P 500 and the CRB Commodity Index over the past 20 trading days. But is the past few weeks a good indication of the relationship between stock and commodities over the long run? Are they really joined at the hip as we are now being told? As it turns out, the answer is no. The longest running commodities index is the CCI Index, with data going back to 1957. The rolling correlation over that time to the S&P 500: close to 0. This means that there is no discernible relat... -
Finance 0
Do Stocks Need A Bull Market In Commodities?
Commodities are up, stocks are up. Commodities are down, stocks are down. This has been the story of 2016 thus far with a remarkably high correlation of .96 between the S&P 500 and the CRB Commodity Index over the past 20 trading days. But is the past few weeks a good indication of the relationship between stock and commodities over the long run? Are they really joined at the hip as we are now being told? As it turns out, the answer is no. The longest running commodities index is the CCI Index, with data going back to 1957. The rolling correlation over that time to the S&P 500: close to 0. This means that there is no discernible relat... -
Finance 0
“Blue Chip” Optimism Vs. GDPNow 1.2% 2016 Initial Q1 Forecast; Strengths And Weaknesses Of GDPNow
“Blue Chip” Optimism The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts off with an anemic 1.2% whimper. “The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. “ First Quarter 2016 GDPNow Forecast The Atlanta Fed “Final” GDPNow Estimate for the 4th Quarter was posted on January 28. The 4th quarter “Blue Chip” consensus at that time was about 1.9%. The actual BEA release was 0.7%. Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow The strength of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is that it mi... -
Finance 0
Central Bank Created Silver Rally
Central banks have created a mess, unless you enjoy unemployment, crashing economies, a wave of bankruptcies, and half of the world’s assets owned by only a few people. From Chris Martinson: The Deflation Monster Has Arrived “Most of the bad decisions that will haunt our future were made by the Federal Reserve in its ridiculous attempts to sustain the unsustainable.” “… looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest.The losses will be staggering.Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-conn... -
Finance 0
Cardinal Health Trumps Q2 Earnings, Sales Estimates
Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH – Analyst Report) reported second-quarter fiscal 2016 adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a nickel and increased 8.3% on a year-over-year basis. Quarter Details Revenues jumped up 23% year over year to $31.45 billion, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $29.20 billion. The growth was driven by strong performance by both the Pharmaceutical and Medical segments. Pharmaceutical revenues surged 25% to $28.29 billion, while revenues from the Medical segment increased 8.5% to $3.16 billion. The year-over-year improvement at the Medical segment was driven by highe... -
Finance 0
E No End In Sight As Etsy Is In Freefall
Etsy’s (ETSY) stock is in slow motion free-fall. The unique retailer of handcrafted goods has so many things working against it. Lockup expiration On January 11, lockup expiration meant insiders are free to start selling shares and to cash in before the stock drop even more. There is up to around 21 percent of float, or 23.7 million shares, that insiders may sell. The excess supply will clearly add to the selling pressure Etsy is facing. Interest in Etsy falling, worse for Amazon.com In the last half of 2015, interest for Amazon.com, as measured by the number of mentions, fell. Mentions for Etsy fell too, but not as much. Amazon’s Handm... -
Finance 0
4 Out Of 5 Risk Indicators Flashing Green, One Hurdle Before Stocks Move To All-Time Highs
We have been saying for a long time that crude oil has been weighing on markets. We even proved that crude oil is THE driver for the different sell offs in stocks throughout 2015, as explained here. As clearly shown on the chart in that article, each time crude declined at least 10% in 12 consecutive trading days, panic ensued in stocks. Well, in the same article we showed that all readings in crude oil had reached extreme levels of historic proportions. We called a bottom in crude, and, consequently, in stocks. So far, we have been proven right. In this article, we look at how our five risk indicators have been trending since we called the... -
Finance 0
Atlanta Fed Sees Far Weaker Than Expected Q1 GDP
Another Monday, another set of “surprisingly” bad economic numbers. A few representative headlines: China manufacturing prices decline for 18th straight month Oil prices fall 5% on bad China data, OPEC uncertainty Global factories parched for demand, need stimulus Junk bonds suffer a rare negative return in January US consumer spending softens, savings hit 3-year high US manufacturing weak again in January China official PMI misses in January, Caixin PMI shows contraction Japanese bond yields continue to collapse There’s more, but you get the (very dark) picture. And thanks to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow program we can see in real time...
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