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Finance 0
Familiar Patterns Return To Capital Markets
The decline in oil and equities are lifting European bonds and Treasuries. The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. We never put much stock in last week’s seemingly euphoric speculation of a deal between Russia and OPEC to support oil prices. As the speculation is unwound, anticipation of another large US inventory build, and poor corporate earnings from energy sector are also taking a toll. BP posted a 91% decline in Q4 earnings. Yesterday, S&P cut Shell’s long-term credit rating by one notch to A+ and placed on negative watch. Last week Chevron, the world’s second largest oil pr... -
Finance 0
What Do You Want To Be When You Grow Up?
My dad has been retired for more than 10 years. Recently he asked my daughter what she wants to be when she grows up. My daughter didn’t have an answer yet. My dad replied, “Yeah, I’m not sure what I want to be when I grow up either.” I think he was serious. Some people never know what they want to be when they grow up because they don’t have many interests. For others, there aren’t enough hours in the day to explore all of the things they want to do. For many people, pursuing their passions, even in retirement or on a part-time basis, can lead to extra income. Growing up, I went to a very talented dentist. He was the best I’ve ... -
Finance 0
3 Top E-commerce Companies For 2016
As we get older in life, we need to realize that the way we think is often changed by the younger generation, and dictated by advances in technology. The days of getting ready, driving the car to the mall, or walking miles through the city to compare prices and do normal shopping has begun to change drastically. Now sitting in your PJ’s sipping a cup of coffee, and scrolling through the internet is the way people look for new items, and compare prices. And it is not just looking at your local store’s web page on your personal computer, you can now access stores from any point in the world with your phone, or other wireless device. ... -
Finance 0
Or Just Google It
DOW – 17 = 16,449SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97%OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00 Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 (down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0... -
Finance 0
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2016
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained subdued in January. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 2.9% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.) Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, matches the projection in the previous month’s update. Adjusting for short-term momentum and longer-term mean-reversion factors (defined below) raises GMI’s current ex ante risk premi... -
Finance 0
An Upbeat Reserve Bank Of Australia Stays Downbeat On Interest Rates
In its February decision on interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a surprisingly upbeat and rosy assessment of economic conditions in Australia. Outside of mining, I daresay economic conditions look particularly promising: “In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 even as the contraction in spending in mining investment continued. Surveys of business conditions moved to above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined in the second half of the year, even though measured GDP growth was below ave... -
Finance 0
UK Construction PMI Falls To 55 – GBP Pressured
The second PMI release is not a charm: the UK’s construction sector is seeing slower growth according to Markit’s PMI: a score of 55 points, significantly below 57.5 expected. GBP/USD is extending its slide, which began before the publication. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for the construction sector carried expectations for a score of 57.5 points, similar to 57.8 seen beforehand. This reflects strong growth in the sector that has led the UK economy forward. GBP/USD traded around 1.4360 towards the publication, sliding from the highs. Yesterday, the manufacturing PMI came out better than expected with 52.9 points. While ... -
Finance 0
Gold/Oil Ratio – Is It Really Making Record Highs?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Mining ran a chart of the gold/oil ratio pointing out that conventional wisdom has placed the two together on the theory that rising oil prices push up inflation increasing demand for gold as a hedge. You have stated gold is not a hedge against inflation and you appear to be correct with all the QE from US, ECB, and Japan, yet nothing has happened. Mining says that the average ratio of gold to oil is around 15 saying it is at record highs now which have not been seen since 1973. The same thing happened in 1980 when a record gold price in inflation adjusted terms again coincided with a sharp rise in the price of o... -
Finance 0
EU Session – Bullet Report – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Pivot: 1.087 Most likely scenario: long positions above 1.087 with targets @ 1.0925 & 1.094 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.087 look for further downside with 1.0835 & 1.081 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. Gold spot Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Pivot: 1118 Most likely scenario: long positions above 1118 with targets @ 1133 & 1138.5 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1118 look for further downside with 1111 & 1104.5 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Crude... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD Forex Signal For February 2, 2016
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% Trades must be entered before 5pm London time today only. Long Trade 1 * Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of the bullish trend line currently sitting at around 1.0822. * Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. * Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. * Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run. Long Trade 2 * Long entry following a bu...
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