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  • Finance 0

    EC A Senior Canadian Gold Producer Worth A Close Look

    Leaders and Laggards We have recently discussed the odd dichotomy that can be observed within the gold sector – there is a group of stocks that is doing extremely well lately (in fact, a number of sub-groups have acted well for quite a while), and another group that is lagging terribly in terms of performance. Many of the laggards happen to be domiciled in Canada (their production is however spread over numerous jurisdictions in many cases). Night view of KGG’s Tasiast operation in Mauritania Photo credit: Kinross Gold As a trader, one is supposed to focus on leaders, not laggards (either on upside or downside leaders, depending on the ...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Set To Rally In 2016, Now Is The Time To Prepare – Danske

    EUR/USD is certainly already on the move, thanks to the big dollar dive. To be fair, this assessment from Danske was released before the move. Here is their reasoning: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: One argument for a lower EUR/USD: – Relative rates: still in favour of USD…   …but several arguments for a higher EUR/USD: Valuation: EUR/USD is substantially undervalued   External balances: The EU/US CA differential is at its widest level since 2004-06 Cyclicals: the Eurozone’s business cycle looks stronger than the US cycle Positioning: speculators are stretched short EUR/USD > impact of relative rates fading   Ter...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC When Irish Eyes Are Smiling

    Apparently, when Irish eyes are smiling, it’s time to call an election. And that is what Prime Minister Kenny has done. The election will be held on February 26. The polls suggest that the governing coalition (Fine Gael and Labour) it may struggle to secure a majority.   In some ways, Kenny is making the same bet as Spain’s Rajoy. The economy’s strength will provide a lift on election day. It has not worked out so well for Rajoy though Kenny may have greater success  However, this is most likely to be in a coalition.   This year is expected to be the third consecutive year that the Celtic Tiger is leading European growth. ...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Forecasts And Recoupling

    Writing for his firm Llewellyn-Consulting.com, a former senior economist of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development considers forecasts. He sounds somewhat like the late Yogi Berra about forecasts about the future: “Many important decisions – macroeconomic, policy, corporate, military – have to be taken in respect of a future that is intrinsically unknowable. But there is no ducking the issue: decisions have to be taken. Even the decision not to take a decision is a decision. So: how best to go about taking decisions that will come into effect in, or even affect, the future? Basically there are three possibilities. “...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil And Stocks Are Joined At The Hip – The Real Reason Why, And What It Means For You

    It used to be that the price of oil and the markets as a whole were disconnected. But these days, it seems like they are instead dancing in unison. When oil goes down, stocks go down right with it. There is no shortage of suggestions why. In fact, every pundit appears to have a ready reason (or reasons) why the two are now joined at the hip. And in each case, the rationale points toward some fundamental factor underlying both. Unfortunately, none of them explain what is really going on. The real cause is quite different… and it’s a cautionary tale for anyone investing in energy… But first, let’s debunk four common myths about the link...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    It’s Never A Perfect Time To Invest In Stocks

    Let me know if any of these narratives sound familiar to you: 2013 Analyst: “We are deeply concerned about the sharply rising 10-Year Treasury Yield as a headwind for stocks. The end of quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policies may forestall further gains in equities.” Total return of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): +32.31% 2014 Analyst: “A sharp drop in virtually all commodity prices may be signaling a contraction in the global economy and warrant reducing exposure to risk assets. Furthermore, the strongest performing asset class is the 30-year Treasury bond, which is a virtual assurance of the coming ...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Currency Wars And ‘The Big Reset’

    “We now have arrived at the point where it is not the banks, but the countries themselves that are getting in serious financial trouble. The idea that we can ‘grow our way back’ out of debt is naive.  The current solution to ‘park’ debts on to the balance sheets of central banks is just an interim solution. A global debt restructuring will be needed, as economists Rogoff and Reinhart recently explained in their working paper for the IMF. This will include a new global reserve system to replace the current failing dollar system, probably before 2020.” Willem Middelkoop, The Big Reset Part I “The wealth of another ...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    NIRP Is So Simple

    Why won’t monetary policy just work as designed? It sounds so utterly simple: To review: Interest rates are the price of lending and saving money. When interest rates throughout the economy are low, banks charge less for loans and individuals have less incentive to save; when they’re high, lenders charge more and individuals save more. This is why central banks tighten interest rates when they’re worried about inflation: Discouraging loans and encouraging individuals to sock their money away slows economic activity, which keeps inflation in check. Conversely, cutting interest rates in a recession encourages credit and consumption, whic...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    FOMC Projections Of Fed Funds Rate

    Here is the graph from FRED for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint. (link)   1.15% for 2016. 2.45% for 2017. 3.20% for 2018. LOL… lots of luck. “The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participan...
    On February 3, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Euro Crisis & The Dollar

    We are finishing up the world currency reports. The reports are not ready at this time, but we will make an announcement once they are available. As we stated at the conferences, nothing appears ready to break before May. Nevertheless, the crazy period ahead appears to be the 2017-2020 time frame. The euro held the Yearly Bearish at the 103 area and elected the 116 number. Normally we would see a rally first to retest that area before turning down. Technically, this view from the reversal model is also supported. When we broke that uptrend line, there was no retest. The euro just collapsed. We should mount some sort of a retest. As far as bre...
    On February 3, 2016 / By