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Finance 0
The Fed Blinks: Tightening Financial Conditions Will Derail Rate Hike Expectations
Today, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York admitted that tightening financial conditions could affect the Fed’s “monetary policy decision.” In his February Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff translates William Dudley’s statements: the Fed is not going to be able to keep its promise of raising interest rates four times throughout 2016. In fact, Peter believes the US is heading into an official recession and that monetary policy will loosen – not tighten – this year. He argues the Fed will soon follow the lead of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank by lowering interest rates into negative territory. Meanwhile... -
Finance 0
Harking Back: Lessons In Investing From Science
Confirm Ye Not Here’s what ought to be a really boring idea – we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they’re looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had. The underlying problem is our old foe, confirmation bias. And the solution for scientists and social scientists alike is known as pre-registration. It would be no bad thing for investors to demand a similar process for fund manag... -
Finance 0
Morning Call For February 4, 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.01%) are up +0.14% and European stocks are up 0.63% as a selloff in the dollar index to a 3-month low underpins crude oil and metal prices and fuels a rally in energy and commodity producer stocks. Gains in European stocks were limited as automakers retreated, led by a nearly 4% decline in Daimler AG, after the automaker said growth will slow down in 2016 with only “slight’ gains in revenue and earnings. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -... -
Finance 0
A Giga Breakout In A Mid-Sized Gold Miner
Gold has broken through its important resistance point at $1,130 USD/oz. That is an important price point, as it coincides with gold’s 200 day moving average and the midpoint in the trend channel that started in July of 2013 (see first chart). We have published our gold price chart several times, but it remains a spot-on chart. Below is the latest version. As clearly seen, major resistance kicks in around $1,210 USD/oz, which is 6.1% above yesterday’s closing price. If gold manages to break through that level, we believe a major trend change would be underway. As the price of gold is surging, gold miners are going higher as well. We are n... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – February 4, 2016
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market rose rather drastically during the day on Tuesday, breaking well above the $32 level. That’s a very bullish sign, but a lot of the movement would have been due to the fact that people are speculating that the Russians and the OPEC members are going to come to some type of an agreement as far as cutting production is concerned. Because of that, the market may be getting ahead of itself and we will simply wait to see whether or not we can break out to a fresh, new high. In the meantime, we believe that the market will more than likely find sellers above and turned the market back around to form a resisti... -
Finance 0
AUDUSD Extends Bullish Price Strength
AUDUSD rallied through its key resistance at the 0.7140 level on Wednesday and followed through higher on Thursday. This leaves risk of more strength on the cards. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7200 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7150 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7100 level with a cut through here targeting further downside pressure towards the 0.7050 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7300 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7350 level and then the 0.7400 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.7450 level. On the whole, AUDUSD remai... -
Finance 0
T2108 Update – The Waterfall And The Whale: An Oversold Near Miss
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs) T2108 Status: 28.8%T2107 Status: 17.7%VIX Status: 21.7 (faded from a high of 27.7!)General (Short-term) Trading Call: bullishActive T2108 periods: Day #... -
Finance 0
FTSE 100: Short-Term Trend Turns Choppy
Today, I view the FTSE 100 from the four-hour timeframe standpoint and its respective levels as the short-term charts have turned choppy and somewhat less reliable. As seen below, the overall trend is bearish below 6085 and may therefore reach the January 26 low of 5767 and the January low 20 of 5601, in the case of an extension. The break to 5767 is easy to understand as it’s a classic breakdown signal and some traders short on the break with a protective stop above the latest swing high (right now 5950). Other and more aggressive bearish traders will most likely use the current bounce in the FTSE 100 index to short. The index has co... -
Finance 0
First 2016 IPO Candy Folio Updates
As we start 2016 it’s a good time to review and update all our positions in the folio. We’re eliminating quite a few and adding some new names. Generally we are hanging on to many of our best performers. First some new additions: Pure Storage (PSTG) is gaining share rapidly in the enterprise storage market. Even though there are multiple enterprise storage vendors hawking FLASH-based solutions there is only one, well… Pure solution. The rest are hybrids. It doesn’t help that players like EMC and Dell are in disarray with M&A activities. Revenue growth is stunning and management (in our view) is the best in the bu... -
Finance 0
U.S. Financial Stress Trending Higher In 2016
Financial stress in the US has been creeping up this year, based on four benchmarks published by Federal Reserve banks. One of the indexes is now signaling a “moderate” stress level for the US, although the other three metrics have yet to confirm the change. As such, the composite reading for all the indexes still reflects stress that’s average to below average. The key question is whether the gently rising trend for all the benchmarks of late will roll on in the weeks ahead? Meantime, let’s get up to speed on the current numbers. The St. Louis Fed’s FRED database collects the data on four indexes that quantify stress in the finan...
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