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Gold & The Dow
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I have a question for your Blog . Do we need a falling dollar, like today, to see Gold rise? Thank you SH Germany ANSWER: No. When the majority begin to see that the government is really in trouble, gold will rise with stocks as they did going into 1980 as well as 1929 (in basket terms). The press is still touting that the world is fine with government in charge. The polls show that people are losing faith. This gradual process will snap in 2017. The REAL function of gold is to act as a hedge against government — not inflation. We do not find any correlation that is consistent to imply that increasing th... -
Finance 0
Our Growing World
Photo Credit: Ejaz Asi In general, I tend not to go in for macro themes. Why? I tend to get them wrong, and I think most investors also get them wrong, or at least, don’t get them right consistently. I do have one macro theme, and it has served me well for a long time, though not over the past two years. I was using the theme as early as 2000, but finally articulated it in 2006. At that time, I was running my equity strategy for my employer, as well as in my personal account. They used it for their profit sharing plan and endowment. They liked it because it was different from what the firm did to make money, which was mostly off of financi... -
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U.S. Nonfarm Private Payrolls: January 2016 Preview
US private nonfarm payrolls in January are projected to increase by 210,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s Labor Dept. report over the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction represents a substantially lower but still healthy gain relative to the previous monthly increase. Two estimates based on recent surveys of economists point to a lesser gain for private payrolls in January relative to The Capital Spectator’s average projection. Here’s a review of the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to... -
Finance 0
$25B Cloud Boost Seen Coming For Amazon, Microsoft, Google
Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) are all poised to get huge boosts from their cloud businesses over the next three years, research firm Pacific Crest wrote in a note to investors today. The combined revenue from their cloud initiatives should surge $25B over the next three years as companies move more workloads to the cloud from legacy IT systems, the firm believes. Next major cloud cycle: The revenue of Amazon’s cloud business, AWS, could triple to $25B by 2018, according to Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson. Moreover, by 2018, AWS could account for 14% of the company’s revenue and over 50% of its profit... -
Finance 0
Will ESPN Worries Sink Walt Disney Stock After Q1 2016 Earnings?
Giant media company Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is due to report Q1 2016 earnings on Feb. 9th 2016 after market close. Wall Street expects Disney to report revenue of $14.75B, good for 10.1% Y/Y growth with diluted EPS of $1.45, good for 14.2% Y/Y growth. Walt Disney did not provide specific guidance for Q1 2016 but only provided highlights of how it expects costs for its various segments to trend during 2016. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Walt Disney has exceeded consensus earnings estimates in the last four consecutive quarters. Flickr Walt Disney Earnings Surprise History Fiscal Quarter End Date Reported Earnings Per Share Consensus EP... -
Finance 0
Ralph Lauren Beats Q3 Earnings, Sales Miss Estimates
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL – Analyst Report), a designer, marketer and distributor of lifestyle products, released better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2016 results, wherein adjusted earnings of $2.27 a share beat Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.11 but declined 5.8% from $2.41 earned in the year-ago quarter. On a currency-neutral basis, earnings jumped 4%. Reported earnings came in at $1.54 per share. Ralph Lauren lowered its forecast for fiscal 2016, anticipating constant-currency revenue growth of 1% compared with 3%-5% expected earlier. This will include an anticipated 400 bps negative impact from foreign currency translatio... -
Finance 0
Another Corporate Giant Is Leaving The U.S. – What This Means For You
Try getting in shape for a marathon on an all-McDonald’s (MCD) diet… You wouldn’t be surprised to come in dead last. After all, you didn’t put in much effort. Actually, you went out of your way to make yourself less competitive. So you would expect to lose. It’s just common sense. But this is exactly what U.S. politicians have been doing for years: passing tax laws that sabotage the country’s global economic competitiveness. As you can see in the chart below, the U.S. has the highest effective corporate income tax rate in the developed world. This is a major reason why the U.S. is lagging behind in the global economic marath... -
Finance 0
Thrilling Thursday – Another $1,000 Profit
That’s right, we did it again! In yesterday’s morning post (and on our Twitter feed) I mentioned the Alert we sent out to our Members in the morning, noting the following long plays in the Futures: 1,900 on the S&P (/ES), closed 1,907 – up $350 per contract 16,100 on the Dow (/YM), closed at 16,320 – up $1,100 per contract 0.975 on Gasoline (/RB), closed at $1.045 – up $2,940 per contract $30 on Oil (/CL), closed at $32.50 – up $2,500 per contract Yes the futures are risky but they give you a tremendous advantage in volatile markets as you can use them to better balance your portfolio before the market opens... -
Finance 0
E EU Economic Forecasts: Inflation To Stay Low, GDP Subdued
The EU released the growth forecasts for the Eurozone today and the picture wasn’t rosy. The slowdown from China and faltering growth in the emerging markets, among other factors are likely to contribute to a further slump in the region. According to the growth forecasts released today, the 28-country EU growth is expected to stay at 1.90%, unchanged from 2015 while 2017 is expected to see economic growth expanding at a pace of 2.0%, a modest revision from 2.10% previously. Releasing the economic forecasts, the EU commission noted that “the recovery was slow, in comparison to both historical as well as other advanced economies.... -
Finance 0
Why Taiwan Has A Largan And China Doesn’t — Nikkei Asian Review
No Asian technology company is currently more successful, dominant and more deeply engrained in the daily lives of a billion-plus people worldwide than Largan Precision. While you may not know the name, odds are you carry Largan technology around with you every day. Largan makes the tiny plastic camera lenses for the high-megapixel cameras built into the iPhone and most higher-end Android devices. Largan enjoys a near-monopoly and is probably the only company in the world supplying an important high-margin component to both Apple (AAPL) and its Android rivals. That means even if Apple’s growth begins to cool, Largan won’t suffer as ac...
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