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Rail Week Ending January 30, 2016: Contraction Continues But With A Short Term Improvement
Week 4 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements but the weekly railcar counts remained deeply in contraction. This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined). Percent current r... -
Finance 0
Ambarella Rises As Analysts See Underappreciated Opportunity Outside GoPro
Shares of GoPro (GPRO) chip supplier Ambarella (AMBA) jumped Thursday despite the action camera maker’s underwhelming quarterly report, with several analysts taking bullish stances on Ambarella and reminding investors of its underappreciated efforts outside of GoPro. UNDESERVED SELLOFF: Canaccord analyst Matthew Ramsay cut his price target on chip supplier Ambarella to $65 from $90 in the wake of GoPro’s significantly underwhelming earnings report Wednesday night. However, despite GoPro’s “shocking” financial outlook and decision to cancel several mid-tier products featuring Ambarella chips, Ramsay reiterated his... -
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Still No ‘Inflation Trade’
Silver vs. Gold and TIP vs. TLT say “no inflation trade yet”.... -
Finance 0
Bad Numbers And Dark Prophesies: Almost Everybody’s Cutting Something
The drumbeat of bad (and sometimes just plain weird) news has risen lately — but today’s batch stands out. Here’s a small sampling: US jobless claims were higher than expected, and continue the rising trend of the past few weeks. US layoffs surged to a six month high, while asset write-downs are up worldwide. Among today’s related announcements: 6,000 layoffs from ConocoPhillips and 10,000 from Shell Oil,and a $5.75 billion write-down from Credit Suisse. These aren’t surprising given the bloodbath in oil and banks’ exposure to that industry. Many, many more shocks from these two sectors are coming. Q4 US worker productivity f... -
Finance 0
January 2016 VSG Portfolio And Market Update
January has come and gone this year and the investors have been left behind in a sea of red. For believers in January Effect, this can be foreboding. They say that the month of January is a barometer for how the stock market will perform through the year. This is not really true, but as an investor you do wonder what may be coming. There are a few main areas of concern for the investors: 1. Volatility: It is becoming very clear that investors are leaving certain names and asset types in droves. Junk bonds have been decimated, so have been the stocks of energy and commodities companies. Biotech, most tech stocks, financials, you name it, h... -
Finance 0
Perfect Storm Hits The Banks
There is no better sight to a hungry trader than blood in the water. “Buy them when they’re cryin” is an excellent investment strategy that always seems to work. There are rivers of tears being shed over the banking industry right now. Federal Reserve officials openly told investors that after the December ¼% rate hike that they would continue to do so on a quarterly basis. Only weeks later, a collapse in the stock market shattered this scenario to smithereens. I doubt we’ll see any more Fed action in 2016. This caught investors in bank shares wrong footed in a major way. But wait! It gets worse! Among the largest holders of American... -
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5 Easy Steps To Reduce Your Debt In 2016
Maybe you’re not the type that makes New Year’s resolutions, but we can all agree that you don’t necessarily need a resolution to push you toward better financial practices. 2016 is a great time to further improve your money habits, and perhaps reach some money goals that you’ve set. Even if you already feel that you’re in a good place financially there are always ways that you can ensure you’re on the right track and even make some changes to your spending habits that will save money this year. You may even find that some changes to your financial practices are in order. If you want to reduce your debt and increase your savings... -
Finance 0
EC Recession Arrives; Factory Orders -2.9%, Inventories Up
Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015. It was another disastrous factory orders report this month. December factory orders fell 2.9% Durable goods orders -5.0%, nondurable goods -0.8% November factory orders revised from -0.2% to -0.7%. Core capital goods orders fell steep 4.3% Inventories rose 0.2% The inventory-to-sales ratio rose again which portends weakness for future hiring and production. Shipments fell a steep 1.4% The Econoday Consensus Estimate was -2.8%, nearly on the mark in a range of -3.7% to +0.2%. It’s mind-boggling that an economis... -
Finance 0
Rick Rule: “Price Of Silver Will Explode”
The bigger the bear market, the more furious the next bull market, especially with commodities. When a bear market like this in commodities is so deep, production will be destroyed. In a new bull market fase it takes a lot of time to build new production. That’s why the next bull market will be maniacal. Rick Rules has decades of experience. Unfortunately he doesn’t see a bottom for gold and silver. The American dollar and US Treasuries are to strong to see a significant rise in gold and silver. When investors run from the euro because of the turmoil, or when investors run from oil because of the tension in the Middle East, they d... -
Finance 0
S&P Downgrades Glencore To Lowest Investment Grade Rating
The one catalyst many Glencore bears have been eagerly waiting for, is the downgrade of the troubled independent energy trader to junk status, a catalyst which as previously explained, will likely spring various, heretofore unknown margin calls and collateral “waterfalls” a la AIG. Overnight, one of the two rating agencies, Standard and Poors, came one step closer to that fateful moment when it downgraded Glencore, however it decided to throw the company one last lifeline by keeping it at the very lowest investment grade rating, and instead of cutting it from BBB to single B or CCC where its CDS and bond yield implies the company ...
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