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  • Finance 0

    Bloomberg Vs. CME Rate Cut Odds: Someone Is Wrong

    Major discrepancies between rate hike odds have surfaced between Bloomberg and CME. Additional discrepancies within Bloomberg itself are also noticeable. Let’s start with comparison of Bloomberg rate hike odds on 12/28/2015 vs. Bloomberg on 2/4/2016. Bloomberg Rate Hike Odds 12/28/2015 On 12/28/2015 Bloomberg showed small chances of a rate cut at various meetings between then and the December meeting on 12/14/2016. Then, despite reams of poor economic data, the chance of a rate cut for the rest of 2016 supposedly shrank to precisely 0% in a snapshot taken on February 4, 2016. Bloomberg Rate Hike Odds 02/04/2015 After being 0% for all of 201...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    USD Sells Off Before Jobs Report

    The U.S. dollar wavered Thursday in anticipation of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payroll report due out later in the day which could hint at the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. The dollar came under renewed pressure Thursday, building on Wednesday’s flight due to fears about the strength of the U.S. economy and fading expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver more interest-rate increases this year. The euro EUR/USD traded at $1.1211, up from $1.1109 late Wednesday in New York and topping the $1.12 level for the first time since October. The euro rose earlier in the day, despite a speech by European Central Ban...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    How Chinese Traders Spend Golden Week: History And Habits

      The Golden Week refers to the 7-day national holiday celebrated in mainland China and some of its territories. This was officially implemented by the Chinese government in 2000 as a way to boost local tourism and allow people to visit their family in other parts of the country. It starts off during the National Day around the first week of October, during which Chinese stock markets are closed for trading. Other markets around the world remain open, though, leaving investors to price in big moves once China’s equity markets resume trading. The performance of financial markets around this period depends mostly on risk sentiment leading up...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    So, Bill Ackman Makes Some Good Points On The Index Bubble…

    He’s often controversial… and usually pretty brash. But Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman is also usually quite insightful. He’s been at this game a long time, and he’s had his share of big wins… and big losses. Ackman has an ego on him. (What hedge fund manager doesn’t?) But he’s also his own biggest critics, and like all good investors he learns from his mistakes. Today, let’s take a look at Ackman’s latest letter to investors, which came out last week. Ackman, like a lot of hedgies, had a terrible 2015. Here were some of his takeaways: Not All Valuation Metrics are Equal Ackman bet big on Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Transportation Sector Woes Continue

    Not Getting Better In late July last year, not long before the stock market delivered a major “warning shot” with its sharp decline in August, we wrote about the transportation sector in Transportation Sector in Trouble – What are the Implications? As we noted at the time, the sector seemed to send a potential “economic red alert”. The famous ghost fleet near Singapore. Photo credit: Richard Jones / Sinopix What was at the time a long-lasting divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages, has in the meantime turned into a complete rout of transportation stocks. At the moment the Transportation Average is...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Remains Bullish Above 1145 – 1140

    Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/02/2016 The markets were unrelenting yesterday as EUR/USD posted new monthly highs including Gold while USD/JPY continued to fall back to below the 117 handle. The January payrolls report from the US is due today which is likely to be key to either further weaken or help the US Dollar recoup its losses. Meanwhile, Gold and EUR/USD remain poised for further gains while GBP/USD is likely to see some downside if prices close below yesterday’s low of 1.453 EURUSD Daily Analysis EUR/USD (1.11): EUR/USD closed near the main resistance between 1.13 – 1.12 on the daily chart while also forming a bearish divergen...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Daily Market Analysis Video – February 5, 2016

    On Friday, we get the all-important jobs number out of the United States, and that of course will have the market focusing on the United States, however, don’t forget that this tends to move the markets in general, so more than likely we will get a knock on effect everywhere. 1 – At this point in time, it looks as if the precious metals market will probably still be an area that can be invested in, as there is more than enough fear and concern around the world to keep markets looking towards the safety aspect of owning precious metals. On top of that, the US dollar looks very vulnerable at the moment, and if it continues to lose ground,...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market Talk – February 4, 2016

    Japan was again the talking point of the session with yet another down day. Initially, the index opened up 0.5% but it was just a matter of time until the sell orders hit the screens again and we were all looking for the bid. The stronger Yen was one reason being provided and we did see exporters (Toyota) lose another 2.2% in today trading. However, by the close of play the Nikkei was off a further 0.9% and has fallen an additional 1.3% in late US futures trading. China saw a slightly better tone for the Shanghai after the PBOC injected more liquidity into the system. There is a lot of talk in Asia of large Hedge Fund interest in the Yuan. Ru...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Pundits ‘Hunting’ For ‘Signs Of A Bear’

    Pundits ‘hunting’ for ‘Signs of a Bear’ are almost in a frenzy debating how many days a bearish trend lasts over, and whether it’s absent or in-anticipation of, a ‘recession’ starting. Of course history is quite replete with examples and a slew of variations; so the exercise in mapping-out expectations seems futile.  That’s so, in particular, as none of the alternatives generally offered, presume a recession ‘already’ underway in the United States. Yes you have to have two or more consecutive negative Quarters; but in our view you can track that from the economic higher in July, whi...
    On February 5, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

    With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP no longer corroborative, the labor reports have been in a world all their own. Far too many economists still rely upon them as their sole window for economic interpretation and these productivity numbers show further why they should not. You have to understand what productivity mea...
    On February 5, 2016 / By