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EUR/USD And GBP/USD Forecast – February 5, 2016
EUR/USD The Euro rallied during the session on Thursday, finally clearing the resistance barrier that had been causing this market to consolidate for some time. Because of this, looks like we are ready to go higher but with the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers coming out today, it’s very likely that the markets will have quite a bit of volatility. In fact, we could get a sudden turnaround if the US jobs number is better than anticipated. However, at this point in time I would suspect that a pullback will more than likely find buyers at the 1.1050 level. If we break the top of the candlestick for the day though, I think we then try to reach towards t... -
Finance 0
Explaining Gold’s Relative Expensiveness
In the blog post “Some gold bulls need a dose of realism“, I noted that relative to the Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index (GNX) the gold price was at an all-time high and about 30% above its 2011 peak. I then wrote: “Rather than imagining a grand price suppression scheme involving unlimited quantities of “paper gold” to explain why gold isn’t more expensive, how about trying to explain why gold is now more expensive relative to other commodities than it has ever been.” A rational explanation of gold’s relative expensiveness begins with the premise that major trends in the gold/commodity ratio are invariably associated — in ... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil Bottoms And Blues
Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough.This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others. Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons. Maybe! But crude oil prices have crashed before and then rallied.Examine the following chart and the 4 step sequences shown. No... -
Finance 0
Europe: This Support Better Holds, But It’s Not Looking Constructive
This is a short update on the European markets. The two key indexes in Europe are the German DAX (the largest German companies) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (the largest European companies). Both indexes have a very similar chart setup. In sum, this setup does not look very constructive. There is certainly a possibility of a bounce at this level, but the chart formation of lower highs since April of 2015 is very concerning. If this first support, indicated in purple (highest of the two lines), does not hold, then there is a second chance, but it will be a last chance. That is correct: a last chance before things turn very ugly. We are not there yet,... -
Finance 0
ConocoPhillips: A Cautionary Tale From The Oil Patch
ConocoPhillips (COP) announced Q4 and full year 2015 financial results on the morning of February 4, 2016. The news included a capitulation to the on-going deterioration of business conditions in the oil patch: COP slashed its dividend by two-thirds: “ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today announced it is taking actions to maintain its strong balance sheet in response to both the weak outlook for commodity prices and expected credit tightening across the industry. The actions will position the company to accelerate shareholder value creation as prices recover. The company announced that its board of directors approved a reduction in the company... -
Finance 0
Will Cloud Computing Be The Next Big Growth Driver For Alibaba?
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) will work with NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) on cloud computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI), Bloomberg Business reports. Alibaba Cloud Computing (AliCloud), a subsidiary of Alibaba that was formerly known as Aliyun, will invest $1 billion on Big Data cloud technologies for businesses. Big Data refers to extremely large or complex sets of information that can be analysed with high-performance computers to spot patterns, trend and associations. Flickr “The Big Data Platform fulfils our vision of sharing our vast data troves that will create immense value to our users,” AliCloud president Simon Hu said at the launch in ... -
Finance 0
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – February 5, 2016
S&P 500 The S&P 500 went back and forth during the course of the day on Thursday, bouncing off the 1900 level, and then testing the 1930 level. The fact that we had a lot of volatility isn’t much of a surprise, after all today is the Nonfarm Payroll Friday session, and of course that will have a major influence on this market. With that being the case, I think that once we break above the 1950 level, the buyers will be firmly in control. As far selling is concerned, I have a hard time believing that this market is going to break down below the 1860 level anytime soon. I think there’s far too much in the way of “value hunting” ... -
Finance 0
The Evolution Of TransEnterix
I’ve been slowly building a long position in TransEnterix (TRXC) since Summer 2013 when it was SafeStitch Medical (SFES) trading at $0.50 in OTC penny land. I stumbled upon SFES after researching Dr. Phil Frost of Opko Health and his individual stock holdings. It’s not everyday you see a successful billionaire continuously purchasing penny stocks in the open market. Frost’s penny stock holdings were a mix of shell companies and legitimate, although mostly struggling, businesses. I blindly followed Frost and picked up a few hundred shares of the SFES shell. (A rookie mistake; never blindly follow anyone, even a successful bil... -
Finance 0
Gold Prices Extend Gains
Gold prices ended Thursday’s session up nearly 1.2%, marking the fifth consecutive rise, as equity markets turned lower to surrender earlier gains and the dollar extended losses versus a basket of currencies. The greenback remained under pressure after the Labor Department said the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed by 8K to 285K and the Commerce Department reported factory orders fell 2.9%. The XAU/USD pair is trading at $1153.43, slightly lower than the opening price of $1155.33. The January U.S. employment report due later today may determine whether the dollar sell-off will continue. The Ichimoku cl... -
Finance 0
Gold In The Year Of Fear (Review From Feb. 4, 2016)
The Gold Market has had a nice run in 2016 so far, and may have considerable more upside to go before encountering serious resistance. This year has been the year of Fear in financial markets so far in 2016, and Gold has benefitted immensely as a result of the ‘scared rabbits’ effect by investors. Video: 00:19:23...
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