Initial Reaction Following three consecutive month of strong jobs, today’s headline payroll numbers came down to earth. There were revisions in many preceding months; some months were up others down. The net effect was an overall gain, but the second half of the year was not as strong as the first. December jobs fell by 30,000 but November rose by 28,000 making the last two months a wash. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 188,000 jobs and the headline total was 151,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, the lowest since April 2008. Revisions BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance Nonfarm Payroll: +151,000 – Establishment Survey Employment...
Officials in South Dakota have figured out how to make up for the complete collapse of their oil fracking industry. They are morphing the Peace Garden State into a major offshore banking center. South Dakota is not alone. Some 200,000 corporations, limited liability companies, and family trusts, are registered in remote Stateline, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. And there has been a sudden outbreak of expensive John Lobb shoes, Turnbull & Asser shirts, and Brioni suits in rustic Cheyenne, Wyoming, as foreign bankers and their high paid tax attorneys descend on the city in droves. Meet the United State of America, the new tax...
Once private credit rolls over in China and the U.S., the global recession will start its rapid slide down the Seneca Cliff. Few question the importance of private credit in the global economy. When households and businesses are borrowing to expand production and buy homes, vehicles, etc., the economy expands smartly. When private credit shrinks–that is, as businesses and households stop borrowing more and start paying down existing debt–the result is at best stagnation and at worst recession or depression. Courtesy of Market Daily Briefing, here is The Chart of Doom, a chart of private credit in the five primary economies: Why ...
Over the last two months, the deterioration in the economic data has become much more prevalent despite the ongoing hopes of the more “bullishly biased” mainstream media. Furthermore, as I predicted early last year, the Federal Reserve likely made a mistake in hiking interest rates when the economic and inflationary backdrop were exceedingly weak. To wit: “The real concern for investors and individuals is the actual economy. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get out of the...
Our Canada reporter on Wednesday recommended an article from the Toronto Globe and Mail “ by the ever- thoughtful David Rosenberg – a Canadian national treasure!” It addresses the mystery of why oil prices and stocks are falling in tandem. Here are extracts from Rosenberg’s article: Many a pundit [says] the slide in oil prices is negative for the global economy. The action in the stock market, after all, rallied all the way from the early-2009 lows in oil up to the mid-2014 highs. There seems to be a tight positive correlation now between oil and the stock market whereas in the past the relationship was inverse. [I]n past cy...
PPG Industries (PPG) has rewarded its investors with higher dividend payments for 44 consecutive years. The company’s dividend appears to be one of the safest in the market with high growth potential as well. What makes this blue chip dividend stock so special? Let’s take a closer look. Business Overview PPG’s roots can be traced back to 1883. Today, the company is a leading supplier of paints, coatings, and specialty materials to customers in construction (45% of sales), automotive (33%), industrial (14%), and aerospace and marine (8%) markets. Coatings provide protection, performance, and decoration for a wide range of p...
Lots of investors are convinced that they can take advantage of particular stocks at certain times of the year, believing that this is the one and only these stocks will outperform during the year. While I commend people for using their brain and seeing the logic between stock performance and specific events, I have to remind folks that this is not unique thinking among stock professionals. Getting ahead of the market means attempting to predict events in the future, and in this case it isn’t anticipating the actual event or holiday, but looking to the earnings report for that particular quarter and judging by trends predicting if the c...
The BoE convened yesterday and kept their monetary policy unchanged. However, the way the voting went was different with Ian McCafferty changing his stance and joining the rest of the MPC in voting for things to stay the same. This says something about how the Bank is not yet ready to follow their American counterparts. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, announced that there is no reason to increase rates for the meantime. The MPC decision was taken taking the current worsening of external market factors and high financial market volatility into account. According to the Bank’s forecasts, economic growth in the UK will be mod...
Greetings, Let’s begin with the UK where the Bank of England once again shifted the inflation forecast lower. The expected time of the BoE’s rate hike has been extended sharply as a result. Source: ?@pdacosta, @BV Moreover, the market is now pricing in a material probability of a rate cut. Source: @pdacosta, @BV At the same time, HBOS says that UK house prices are growing at nearly 10% per year -an interesting dilemma for the BoE. The reason for the house price increases is mostly lack of supply, as the country faces a housing shortage. Source: Investing.com Turning to Germany, the nation’s factory orders report was rath...