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Market In-Review: Stocks Slide On Weak Macro
? U.S. Macro data exhibit weak performance and a mixed Nonfarm Payrolls ? U.S. equity suffers from a weak economic and a monetary easing averse Fed ? Nasdaq drop 5.4% during week, to lowest level since Oct 14. ? Global equity continues to tumble amid U.S. weakness, Asia woes ? Oil falls to USD 30.89, as high correlation with equity persists Dampened global sentiment persisted last week. U.S. data in particular has been fairly weak. This included the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index, which slid to a level of 53.5, as well as deteriorating December Factory Orders. December’s Nonfarm print, on the other hand, proved somewhat mixed seei... -
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GBP/USD 2016 Rebound Vulnerable To Upbeat Fed Testimony
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral British Pound Slightly Lower on Dovish BoE, Markets not surprised GBPUSD Breakout Levels- Key Resistance in Focus Ahead of BoE The near-term rebound in GBP/USD may continue to unravel in the week ahead should the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony with Chair Janet Yellen highlight a further deviation in the policy outlook. Indeed, the British Pound avoided the most bearish scenario as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney talked down expectations for a further reduction in the benchmark interest rate, but the unanimous vote to retain the current policy may fur... -
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The Mechanics Of NIRP: How The Fed Will Bring Negative Rates To The U.S.
Over one year ago, when the “conventional wisdom” punditry was dreaming up scenarios in which the Fed could somehow hike rates to 3% and in some magical world where cause and effect are flipped, push the economy to grow at a comparable rate we said that not only is the Fed’s tightening plan going to be aborted as it represents “policy error” and tightening in the middle of a global recession, but it will result in the Fed ultimately cutting rates back to zero and then, to negative. Gradually the market is agreeing with us, and as the following chart shows, the probability of a negative 3 month Libor rate in 2 ye... -
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Weekly Forex Forecast – 2/7/2016
EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair broke out above the resistance at the 1.1050 level, suggesting that we are going to go higher. I believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to be the way to go long of the Euro at this point in time. I expect a positive week. At this point in time, I believe that the 1.15 level will be challenged, but it may not be right away. NZD/USD The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave back about half of the gains. I still believe that we are going to be a bit more positive though, so short-term pullbacks should offer buying opportunities as we try to reach back to the 0.69 handle. A... -
Finance 0
Invest With A Telescope…Not A Microscope
It was another bloody week in the stock market (S&P 500 Index (SPY) dropped -3.1%), and any half-glass full data was interpreted as half-empty. The week was epitomized by a Citigroup report entitled “World Economy Trapped in a Death Spiral.” A sluggish monthly jobs report on Friday, which registered a less than anticipated addition of 151,000 jobs, painted a weakening employment picture. Professional social media site LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) added fuel to the fire with a soft profit forecast, which resulted in the stock getting almost chopped in half (-44%)…in a single day (ouch). It’s funny how quickly the headlines can change ... -
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Weighing The Week Ahead: Is A Recession Looming?
The economic calendar is light and it is the start of the week-long Chinese New Year. This means some media time and space that must be filled. Needing an attention-getter, I expect the punditry to be asking: Is a recession looming? Prior Theme Recap In my last WTWA I predicted that everyone would be talking about whether the stock market correction was over. That was one of the most frequent media topics for the week, especially at the lows on Wednesday and again on Friday. As expected, answers varied and we still don’t know for sure. The early-week strength, mid-week rebound, and Friday selling in Doug Short’s weekly chart. (With the... -
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EUR/GBP: Recovering With Caution Ahead Of Key Resistance
EUR/GBP- With the cross closing strongly higher the past week, further bullishness is likely. However, with price hesitation seen on Friday (daily chart) ahead of its key resistance at 0.7741/55 zone, it should face pullback threats in the new week. Support comes in at 0.7640 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7600 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7550 level. A break will expose the 0.7500 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7700 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7740 level. On further upside, the 0.7780 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7820 level. All in ... -
Finance 0
26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16
We evaluated 50 different companies this week to determine whether they are suitable for Defensive Investors, those unwilling to do substantial research, or Enterprising Investors, those who are willing to do such research. We also put each company through the ModernGraham valuation model based on Benjamin Graham’s value investing formulas in order to determine an intrinsic value for each. Out of those 50 companies, only 26 were found to be undervalued or fairly valued and suitable for either Defensive or Enterprising Investors. The Elite The following companies were found to be suitable for either the Defensive Investor or Enterpri... -
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Precious Metals Video Market Update
What do gold & gold stocks have to do to confirm a major turn? Best viewed at full screen. Video Length: 00:13:53... -
Finance 0
Dollar Recovers After Painful Stumble As Market’s Fed Doubts Waver
A number of major market themes were driven this past week; but for FX, the Dollar’s remarkable volatility grabbed most traders’ attention. Will the Greenback finally rekindle a full trend and pull the broader FX market it once again in the coming weeks? Taking measure of the currency’s performance this past week, the range of the past 10 months held firm with the 200-day moving average keeping the floor beneath the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar). However, the technical restraints doesn’t fully account for the extraordinary volatility experienced. The sharpest two-day drop intraweek in two-and-a-half years, fol...
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