As Turkey, alongside Saudi Arabia and Qatar see the balance of power in the Syrian proxy war effectively shift back towards the Assad regime, recent trial balloons and troop buildups could be a game changer in the ongoing conflict. The rising probability of a wider conflict unfolding in the region means that Syria could be the spark that lights an even larger fire. So far oil prices have responded in similar fashion to “buy the rumor” and “sell the news”. The rapid rally higher comes on the heels of data from OPEC and other global output centers showing in many cases production is continuing to rise. Now that peace talks in Switzerlan...
A relentless decline in oil prices and sluggish Chinese economic growth adversely affected the broader markets so far this year. Additionally, weak domestic economic growth along with lackluster corporate earnings results dented investors’ confidence. The S&P 500 and the Dow had registered their biggest monthly losses last month since Aug 2015. Considering their drop from the earlier highs it seems that we are nearing a bear market. Amid this broader downtrend, the stock market was subjected to gyrations. But what’s in it for active investors? It’s as simple as this – they should cash in on the persistent ups and downs and make mo...
Over the past few years, I’ve been coaching my eldest son at soccer. This has been one of the most inspiring and exciting experiences I’ve lived with my son. Each year, I have the habit of giving funny nicknames to my players. It makes the kids laugh and creates good team spirit. Over the year, I’ve called my own son Big Bill the Train on the soccer field (his real name is William ) . There is a reason why he got this nickname. Just like a real train, he often takes a while to get up to full speed. While he shows amazing speed and strength on the field; he rarely use it during the first half of the game. However, once the train has sta...
U.S. stocks in the red as NFP data fail to meet forecasts U.S. stock markets lost ground on Friday following lower-than-expected jobs data. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, released on the same day by the U.S. Department of Labour, revealed that during January there were 151,000 new job fillings. However, there were higher expectations prior to the report’s release by analysts who were expecting a much healthier number of 190,000. In addition, January’s data was also significantly lower than the previous month of which jobs fillings were 262,000. Given that the NFP data is one of the most important economic factors influencing the Federal...
The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Friday but turned back around as the $32 level offered far too much in the way of resistance. By doing so, it ended up forming a shooting star and it appears that the market is ready to continue to drift toward the $30 level. That being the case, I am short of this market and will continue to be so as it looks so bearish. I think that we will eventually break down below the $30 level and reach towards the $28 level, and then perhaps even lower than that. Rallies at this point in time will be selling opportunities off of short-term charts, and that keeps me on th...
Although I have a son and daughter at the tail-end of the much-maligned demographic group, Millennials (current age 18 to 33), they’re still a bit of a mystery to me. The common perception of this “coddled” generation is that they’re obsessed with social media and technology, are in no hurry to grow up and move out of the house, have shelves groaning with trophies just for showing up, and want a life of meaning rather than work. Whether or not there’s truth to this is beside the point. What really concerns me is that this age group strongly prefers investing through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than through good old fashione...
Despite a collapse in yields and implicit plunge in the odds of a rate-hike anytime soon, asset-gathering, commission-taking talking-heads continue to spew unrealities about the economy and where it goes next as excuse after excuse (low oil is good, services trump manufacturing etc) are discarded. What is worse is that none other than The Fed’s “owners” – the primary dealers – refuse to play along with The Fed’s transitory narrative as their Treasury Bond position is the longest since 2013. Of course, as Bloomberg notes, the buildup in the 22 primary dealers’ Treasuries holdings, concentrated in m...
2016 is moving right along with triple digit moves in the DOW occurring almost every day. In a word, volatility is here to stay. Of course, as any long time dividend growth investor already knows, volatility tends to equate to opportunity. Opportunity to initiate new positions at better prices, value and yields and opportunities to average down on positions already in our portfolios. We are already very familiar with the sectors that have been beaten down in the last year including every energy related company, Canadian banks and cyclical industrial names moving towards a trough in the economic cycle. These are the opportunities being present...
Last week saw all of the major markets lose ground and the oil price partially relinquish earlier gains. Unconvincing US job data sent markets lower at the end of the week, adding to losses. In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was down by 3.9%, it closed at 5848.1; the Dax ended at 9286.2, down by 5.2% on last week’s close; the CAC was down by 4.6% to end the session at 4200.7. The Dow ended the week down by 1.6% to close at 16205. The Nasdaq composite index ended down by 5.4% over the course of the week at 4363.1. The Nikkei 225 ended the week’s trading down by 4% to end the session at 16820. Currency Markets Review On the ...