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  • Finance 0

    Gold Vs USD On Friday The 13th

    Image Source: PixabayFriday, the thirteenth. Will gold have bad luck? Will the U.S. dollar?Of course, the fact that it’s Friday the thirteenth has no impact on neither gold, nor the USD Index, but this day might be important for both markets due to other reasons.And yes, Paraskevidekatriaphobia also known as friggatriskaidekaphobia (was another term for this really necessary?) is the fear of Friday the thirteenth, and it’s a type of triskaidekaphobia, which is the fear of number 13 in general.Getting back to the markets, gold moved to new highs today, while the dollar moved lower. In particular, dollars performance vs. the Japanese yen...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    Labor Market Impact On The Stock Market

    Image Source: UnsplashThe August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing. Investors should pay attention because the link between employment and its impact on the economy and the market is undeniable. While often overlooked, as we will discuss, there is an undeniable link between economic activity and corporate earnings. Employment is the driver of a consumption-based economy. Consumers must produce first before consuming, so employment is critical to corporate earnings and market valuat...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Next Oil Boom

    Image Source: PixabayThe prevailing narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weakening demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down.Oil prices have dropped 22.55% since their April peak. Will they reverse course soon?Today, we’re beginning a multiweek series on energy. For all the talk about the need to electrify our economy and change the mix of energy, there remain few alternatives to oil and gas, when operating at scale. Yes, wind and solar are growing rapidly, along with battery storage, as many of you have pointed out, but they cannot keep pace with our rising demand for electricity. Oil and gas simply are not...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    Think You Know Gold Stocks?

    Image Source: PixabayIt is one of the most interesting aspects of precious metals investing/trading. This buy/sell for the wrong reasons phenomenon. Many years ago I came up with the graphic below to illustrate how advisers, analysts, and their herds focus on the wrong reasons for being bullish on gold miners.Reenter, the Macrocosm, our rough guide to what is and what is not so important to the fundamental gold mining case. See those tiny planets (China/India love trades and especially, cyclical inflation)? They are tiny for a reason and that reason is that they are bullshit, where supposed fundamentals are concerned. What I call “cycli...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market Musings

    Image Source: PixabayAfter a year of being with the TheoTrade team, I finally got the opportunity to meet Don and the rest of the team. It’s always great to put a name to a face, especially when you’re talking to people on a daily basis. Not to mention, I’ve had the chance to meet many TheoTrade members and believe me when I say the ideas are flowing.Even though we’ve gathered here in Scottsdale, markets have stayed on the move. I’ll be straight up with you and say that there have been significant improvements in the market’s tape over the past week. Here’s what I mean…  Why the Macro Picture Could Help Tech  In recent wee...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    U.S. Retail Earnings Update: Friday, Sept 13

    Image Source: UnsplashTo date, 196 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 99% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 14.4%.The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.6% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 49% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    Update: Real Median Household Income For 2023

    Image Source: PexelsI’m a little late to this since FRED took its time updating, but the annual report of median household income for the US was released on Tuesday for 2023. This is an important statistic about the well-being of, well, the median American household, so one of my pet peeves is that it is only released annually, and with a 9-month delay at that. So Tuesday’s release tells us about where an important metric was about 18 months ago. Yeah, that’s a problem in my book.In any event, median household income rose a hair under 4.0% in 2023, to a level only exceeded – by 0.7% – in 2019:That compares very favorably w...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Yield Curve Failure?

    Image Source: PixabayThe US yield curve is considered to be a good leading indicator of US recession, with an inversion of the curve invariably occurring prior to the start of a recession. However, the Wolf Street article posted HERE questions the yield curve’s reliability. The article notes that part of the US yield curve recently ‘uninverted’, which is true. What’s not true is the claim in the article that since 1998 the US yield curve failed twice by warning of recessions that didn’t occur.According to the article, the yield curve’s 2019 inversion was a failure because even though there was a recession in 2020, the recessio...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    Over 30,000 Boeing Workers Go On Strike, Stock Tumbles

    Image Source: UnsplashBoeing Co. (BA) is grappling with its largest labor disruption in over a decade as more than 30,000 workers walked off the job early Friday, bringing production of most aircraft to a standstill. The strike, which began after midnight, follows an overwhelming rejection of a tentative labor agreement by members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), with 94.6% voting against the deal and 96% supporting the work stoppage. IAM Workers Reject Tentative Deal with Boeing, First Strike Since 2008  The IAM characterized the action as an “unfair labor practice strike,” citing allegation...
    On September 13, 2024 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Gap In GM

    Image Source: PixabayJust about the only silver lining to the insane rally this week has been some “fish that got away” have come back for another opportunity. I was chagrined to not secure a position with General Motors (GM), but this morning it bounced up to its gap, providing me another chance to get in. I have done so, acquiring $50 puts expiring January 17th.Here’s a longer view to illustrate the greater opportunity.More By This Author:Triple PainAmazon TriangleBeautiful Gap Fill...
    On September 13, 2024 / By