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  • Finance 0

    A Specialty Low-Volatility Robo Model

    In my last few posts, I’ve been sharply criticizing the portfolios delivered by the aggressively marketed and heavily publicized large generalist robo-advising firms. While their web sites are beautiful and incredibly easy to use, I find much to be desired in the portfolios they offer, a situation caused by dogmatic allegiance to quant scripts without much consideration to real-client suitability. Today, I’ll explore an example of an alternative approach. A Framework For starters, since I address U.S. investors whose financial needs are denominated in U.S. dollars, I would not invest in any ETF that owns securities whose returns are ba...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Demand For Safe-Haven Bonds Surged Last Week

    The crowd piled into investment-grade bonds last week as economic worries triggered an exodus out of risky assets. Reviewing the major asset classes for the week just passed through an ETF lens reveals sharply divided results. The safe-haven trade generated handsome gains for several ETFs representing broad measures of the global fixed-income realm for the five trading days through Feb. 5. Even the usually weak corner of emerging-market government bonds caught a break. Stocks, REITs, and commodities, by contrast, suffered hefty losses. Last week’s big winner: SPDR International Treasury Bond (BWX), which posted a strong 2.6% total return....
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    February Seasonality Gives US Dollar Rebound Hope Next Few Weeks

    That was a rough first week of February for the US Dollar. After interest rate markets priced out any rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, the greenback slid across the board, with Wednesday, February 3, marking the single-largest one day drop for the ICE Dollar Index in history outside of the 1998 and 2008 crises. Needless to say, markets have proven unsettled with the US Dollar’s prospects, so much so that otherwise bullish longer-term seasonality trends have thus far been ignored. Yet now that rate hikes by the Fed in 2016 have been priced out, there may be a floor in expectations in place; the US Dollar’s otherwise bullish se...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Chinese Vacation An Escape From Rough January

    The Chinese Year of the Monkey has started today, kicking off a week of public holidays in China during which all trading will be suspended. This vacation may be a nice breather for the struggling economy whose foreign reserves posted losses for the third straight month in January, with the Chinese central bank freeing itself of dollars to prevent money from flowing out of the country. China’s foreign reserves fell to $3.23 trillion in the first month of 2016, to the lowest level since May 2012. The drop of $99.5 billion was not as great as that in the prior month, December 2015, in which the Chinese central bank increased its efforts t...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why Silver Is Headed Up And How To Take Advantage Of The Trends

      Silver is one of my favorite commodities to follow, and for good reason. Silver is one of the unique commodities in the sense that it is not just a commodity that’s used by the public, it’s a safe haven investment. After an in depth analysis into the precious metal, I’m ready to dump my life’s savings in it because I believe that recent gains are just the beginning of the growth we’re likely to see. Today, we’ll talk about the factors that cause movement in the value of silver, what we’re seeing with regard to these factors at the moment, what we can expect to see from the price of silver moving forward, and how binary option...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Falling Stocks And Yields Drag Dollar Lower

    Many markets are closed in Asia, and although Tokyo managed posted equity gain, most other markets in the region that were open fell.  And the selling pace picked up in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2.3%, led by information technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary. It is trading at new lows since late-2014. It is the sixth consecutive losing session, which is the longest such streak in seven months.   Rather than a new trigger, the equity losses today seem to be a continuation of what investors have been experiencing. The same is broadly true of the bond market. Core bond yields, including US Treasuries, bunds, and ...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EU Session Bullet Report – Gold Surges $30 After NFP

    EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1180. Pivot: 1.1180 Most likely scenario: short positions below 1.1180 with targets @ 1.1070 & 1.1030 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1180 look for further upside with 1.1240 & 1.1310 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside. Gold spot Intraday: the upside prevails. Pivot: 1158.00 Most likely scenario: long positions above 1158.00 with targets @ 1181.00 & 1188.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1158.00 look for further downside with 1145.00 & 1139.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. Crude Oil (WTI) (H6) Intraday: unde...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E The Daily Shot And Data – February 8, 2016

    We begin with Friday’s US employment report. The number of jobs created in January was below consensus but the market interpreted the figures as “hawkish” (potentially providing some ammunition for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates). Short-term rates rose in response (treasuries and rate futures fell). Fed Funds futures declining implies expected fed funds rate rising (Source: ?barchart) Markets were especially spooked by rising wages: from 2% to 2.5% per year. It’s not clear however if this qualifies as “wage pressures”.  Another trend “spooking” the markets is the convergence b...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Venezuela Prepares To Liquidate Its Remaining Gold Holdings To Pay Coming Debt Maturities

    Last Thursday when we recounted the story of how Venezuela is now literally flying in paper money (using three dozen cargo Boeing 747s), we wrote that “Venezuela’s hyperinflation, already tentatively estimated at 720%, will likely add on a few (hundred) zeroes by this time next year. It is also quite likely that Venezuela the country, as we know it now, will no longer exist because once any nation is swept up in hyperinflationary rapids two things occur like clockwork: social uprisings and political coups. But before it gets there, Venezuela’s president Maduro will be busy liquidating the nation’s roughly $12 billion...
    On February 8, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Short-term Trading Idea FX GBP/CAD – Bull Speculation: Break From Support With Two Pinbars

    Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has broken from the support. We have two pinbars and a double bottom. On Monday it’s better not to make any big deals and keep an eye on the price of oil. If the GBP/CAD doesn’t fall, we could see two price zones as a target: 2.0325 and 2.0550. If the price of Brent restores above $35, it will be worth staving off pound purchases. Background The last GBP/CAD idea I made was out on 28th December of last year. Back then the pound was going for 2.0674 Canadians. A bounce from the 2.0949 maximum formed a double top on the daily. A restoral of the oil price meant a fall of the GBP/CAD to 2...
    On February 8, 2016 / By