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Finance 0
Dollar Uncertainty Keeps Gains At Bay
After Friday’s labor report from the US, the greenback today is once again under some pressure. While new private sector jobs growth fell in January, missing analysts’ expectations, the unemployment rate dipped to an 8-year low. Analysts say that the labor sector remains in solid recovery mode as evidenced by rising wages and an improved unemployment rate and despite the declines in new jobs. Nonetheless, the economic outlook as a whole remains uncertain, and the chances for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike seem to be lessening. As reported at 10:49 am (GMT) in London, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.1168, a gain of 0.07%; the pai... -
Finance 0
Concern On Model X Presents Buying Opportunity In Tesla, Says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves sees macro worries, negative sentiment on auto stocks, and declining oil prices as understandable reasons why Tesla shares have sold off recently. However, he also thinks the concerns on Model X production, which he notes have been the subject of several recent bearish comments from other analysts, as overdone and presenting a buying opportunity ahead of the company’s earnings report this Wednesday. The ramp-up of the Model X has been slower than expected, and behind the company’s initial plans, Galves acknowledged, but he adds this is not due to fundamental issues and he still expects 500 Model X ... -
Finance 0
Morning Call For February 8, 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -1.31%) are down -1.12% at a 2-week low and European stocks are down -2.11% at a 15-1/2 month low on global economic concerns. Weakness in crude oil and in copper pushed energy producers and mining stocks lower, while the cost of insuring the debt of European financial companies rose as the Markit iTraxx Europe Senior Financial Index of credit-default swaps climbed +11 bp to 132 bp, the highest in 2-3/4 years. A loss of confidence is another negative for European stocks after the Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected to the lowest in 13 months. The weakness... -
Finance 0
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Ahead – 2/8/2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM assets for the most part fared well last week, and positive sentiment should carry over into this week. China reported January foreign reserves over the weekend, and they fell less than expected to $3.231 bln. China markets are closed this week for the New Year holiday. While there should be little risk of negative headlines from the mainland, markets should watch how CNH trades in the offshore markets that are open. Oil prices should also be regarded as an important factor behind general market sentiment. Overall, we think the current bounce could be extended, but we still believe the medium-term b... -
Finance 0
Chart Of The Day: Q4 Heading For 5.6% Earnings Decline
Q4 heading for 5.6% earnings decline.... -
Finance 0
The Bank Of Japan: Propping Open Pandora’s Box
The Bank of Japan’s introduction of negative interest rates is one of the most significant events to hit the FX market recently. By taking this action, the BoJ has basically said that its bond-buying operations have reached their limit and they need to find other ways to support the economy. The likely channel is through the exchange rate: by depressing interest rates across the yield curve and (one hopes) raising inflation, the BoJ is aiming to lower real interest rates. This won’t benefit companies that much, because they can already borrow at extraordinarily low rates, so the aim must be to push down the yen by making overseas investme... -
Finance 0
GBP/USD Looks To Weaken More On Bearishness
GBPUSD: Having declined on further weakness during Monday trading session, GBPUSD looks to weaken more on bearishness. On the downside, support lies at the 1.4350 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.4300 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.4250 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.4200 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.4450 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.4500 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4550 level followed by the 1.4600 level. On the whole, ... -
Finance 0
Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds
The biggest event of the weekend, if not the month, was China’s FX reserve outflow update, which at $100BN was slightly better than the $120BN expected (it pushed China’s reserves to the lowest in nearly 4 years) but it was in the “no man’s land” between the BofA best case scenario ($37.5BN), and the GS worst case ($197BN). And while there was some hope this number, together with China being offline for the next week could lead to some stability across markets, this is what we said yesterday about this indecisive number: “for markets, what this means is that the next month will likely be market by more of... -
Finance 0
E Fear Not The Fed Put
When I entered the fixed income business 26 years ago next month (and when I took over a fixed income trading book two years later), the fixed income business was a simple place. One judged credits on fundamentals, long-term rates on inflation expectations and forecast monetary policy by the thickness of Alan Greenspan’s brief case (the thicker the brief case the greater the chance for a change in monetary policy). We did not worry about quantitative easing. Corporate borrowers were allowed to default and, if necessary, fail. Market participants took their lumps like adults when an investment soured. No one expected the Fed (or anyone else... -
Finance 0
Oil’s True Message
The pervasive narrative on Wall Street is that the collapse in oil prices will, any second now, restore consumers to their profligate spending ways. In fact, financial pundits have been calling for plunging energy prices to imminently rescue the economy for the past 18 months. Most importantly, these same gurus, who love to espouse the benefits of a collapse in oil prices, never connect the dots to what this collapse says about the state of global growth. Instead they argue it is solely a function of a supply glut that is the result of increased production. West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) fell from $105 a barrel in June of 2014, to well b...
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