If the world is poised upon the precipice of “deflation” and the ugly economic consequences of reduced “money supply”, at the middle of all that are the primary dealers – still. While it is technically correct to claim that the Fed expanded its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion, with $2.4 trillion left after autonomous factors for bank “reserves”, that actually means very little without almost perfect assistance of the primary dealers. The idea of QE was that buying securities from these dealers would leave them no choice but to turn around and use some of those reserves in either money markets further on, or in outright purchasi...
Stocks are taking a hit to start the week: With much of Asia on holiday and China closed for the entire week in observance of Lunar New Year, this appeared like a prime opportunity for a quiet start to a potentially heavy week. But that was not to be; selling in Europe started on the open and hasn’t really calmed down yet. Given that we’re in a fresh start to the week and there’s been essentially no data to feed into these declines, this would indicate that we’re seeing either a) technical selling or b) a broader, ‘bigger picture’ theme take place. From most available signs, the latter would appear to be the operative case. We di...
<< Read More: 2007 All Over Again? Let Us Count The Ways (And Remember What Happened Then) – Part 1 << Read More: 2007 All Over Again? Mega-Merger Edition – Part 2 So far, each financial crisis in the series that began with the junk bond bubble of 1989 has been noticeably different from its predecessors. New instruments, new malefactors, new monetary policy experiments in response. But the one that’s now emerging feels strikingly similar to what just happened a few years ago: Banks overexposed to assets they thought were safe but turn out to be highly risky see their balance sheets deteriorate, their liquidity dry u...
Light economic calendar With just the German Industrial Production numbers coming out during the day, there isn’t a whole lot out there to move the markets. With this, we look at the charts for our next trade. CAC looks horrible The Parisian index is trying to make a fresh, new low at the time of writing., And it appears that the put buyers are going to take over. On a break down to a fresh, new low, we believe that the buyers will drive this market to the €4000 level, and then lower than that. With no interest in buying calls, and believe that any bounce from here will more than likely attract put buyers as well. Silver breaks out Silver...
Shares of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) are plunging in morning trading after the biotechnology company reported disappointing clinical trial results for its potential hereditary angioedema treatment. What’s new: BioCryst this morning announced results from its OPuS-2 trial evaluating avoralstat in treatment of patients with hereditary angioedema, or HAE. BioCryst said either a 500 mg or 300 mg dose of the drug was administered three times daily to patients suffering HAE attacks, but said those patients did not have a lower rate of edema, or swelling, than patients given a placebo. The primary goals of the study were to characterize t...
S&P 500 has created a series of higher lows and higher highs for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bull market. Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bear market. Hey friends check this out; It appears the S&P is breaking 5-year support and the Gold Bugs index is breaking resistance, at the SAME TIME. “Super Trends” coming to an end? The Power of the Patterns suggests that if these support/resistance lines get taken out, this could be a pretty big deal friends!!!...
Recession Odds From Rosenberg David Rosenberg, chief economist at money-management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, went way out on a limb today. Even though oil broke $30 to the downside again today, bond yields have crashed, and the price of many commodities is below the cost of production, Rosenberg made this statement today as quoted by the Wall Street Journal: “I put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year as close to zero as anything could be close to zero.” A spike—not a fall—in oil prices preceded or accompanied every recession since the 1970s. “This is the first time I’ve ever heard the economic intelligentsia ...
The year 2016 saw an appalling start on the bourses as last year’s headwinds spilled over this year with deepening woes. This is especially true as the world’s second largest economy is not showing any sign of reviving anytime soon and the global oil market continues to be overloaded. These two issues have been thwarting global economic growth and raising threats of deflation (read: 5 ETF Plays for a Bear Market). In fact, both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded their projection for world economic growth. The World Bank cut its growth forecast to 2.9% for this year from 3.3% while IMF expects the global econo...
Founded in 1899, Legg Mason is one of the world’s largest asset managers with assets under management of $708 billion. Legg Mason and its affiliates currently manage 112 mutual funds across a wide range of categories, including both equity and fixed-income funds, with over $96.1 billion (excluding money market assets) invested in them. It uses a multi-affiliate business model that allows each affiliate to operate with a high degree of autonomy utilizing its unique approach and processes. The company provides an array of financial services to individual and institutional investors in 190 countries across six continents. Below we share with y...
According to Apple rumor website, 9to5 Mac, Apple (AAPL) will announce its new line of products on March 15th. This release will include new wristbands for the Apple Watch and the new iPhone 5SE. The iPhone 5SE will have a 4-inch screen, which may appeal to consumers who do not want their phone to take up as much space as the iPhone 6 and 6s. The 5SE will be priced the same as the current iPhone 5S, starting at $450 for a 16gb model. The 5SE will include an updated A9 chip; improved cameras and it will support Apple Pay. Physically, the 5SE will strongly resemble the 5S, however, it may have curvier edges. Unlike the current 5S, the 5SE will ...