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  • Finance 0

    Yellen And Fed In Total Denial

    Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CFO for Saxo bank pinged me this morning with the Bloomberg headline Yellen Signals Rate Path Hinges on Whether Turmoil Persists. Steen suggested the alternative headline “Yellen and Fed in Denial“. I added the word “total”. Key Ideas Yellen expects to raise interest rates Financial conditions less supportive of growth Uncertainty over China growth and exchange policy has exacerbated concerns Too soon to tell if volatility, oil prices and bond yields is passing or headed deeper Lower fuel prices and steady job growth should boost household spending Inflation will eventually move back to 2% range St...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Deutsche Bank Spikes Most In 5 Years (Just Like Lehman Did)

    Rumors of ECB monetization (which would be highly problematic in the new “bail-in” world) and old news of the emergency debt-buyback plan have sparked an epic ramp in Deutsche Bank’s stock this morning (+11% – the most since Oct 2011). This extreme volatility is, however, eerily reminiscent of 2007/8 when headline hockey sparked pumps and dumps on a daily basis in Lehman stock… until it was all over. “Deutsche Bank is fixed”? Or is it? Things are already fading… We suspedct every bounce will be met by opportunistic selling as an inverted CDS curve has seldom if ever reverted back to life....
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Brandon Smith: The Controlled Demolition Of Our Economy

    People need to ask an important question – Why would the Fed hike interest rates in the first place when no one ask them to do it? Why would they do that? ~Brandon Smith, The Daily Coin I wanted to sit down with Brandon Smith, Alt-Market, for a very specific reason. Brandon is one of very few people that stuck to his analysis and said the Federal Reserve would in fact raise interest rates in December 2015. Not only did he say that the interest rate rise would happen, he predicted almost the exact date. Brandon made this prediction in August 2015 based on his analysis of what the global banksters have published, have said publicly an...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Pound Higher With UK Stocks After Soft Industrial Production Data

    Talking Points: – UK industrial production fell 0.4% y/y vs. 1.0% gain expected. – Manufacturing production down 1.7% y/y vs. 1.4% loss forecast. – Pound higher with stocks on demand for GBP-denominated assets. See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot. The British Pound traded higher versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s industrial production report came well below expectations, seemingly on demand for GBP-denominated assets. The report showed industrial production fell 1.1% in December, below the prior revised 0.8%...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Regulation In Forex Markets – Why And How?

    The Foreign Exchange (FX) market is the largest, most liquid market in the world – with around US $5.3 billion traded daily. Day trading is quite common among currency traders but most investors depend on setting up trading accounts and executing their trades via Forex brokers. There are hundreds of Forex brokers and new ones are constantly opening their doors to the public. This makes it difficult for traders to choose the best brokerage and leaves them at the mercy of the broker when it comes to honesty and transparency. Despite its huge size, regulation in the Forex market is scarce and there is no single global body to police it 24/7. ...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Investment Options For Leading US And European Banks

    One of the most important sectors in the S&P 500 index is the financial sector. Over the course of my economic analyses, I have paid scant attention to the US banking industry for the simple fact that it has been a rock-solid component of the US economic engine. However, cracks are starting to appear in major US banking corporations across the nation, and the global economic rot is affecting major European banking organisations as well. The focus of this trading article will be on Deutsche Bank and the major US banks. The overall trend is bearish, which would appear to suggest placing put options on the stocks. However, a careful analysis...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Yellen Only Slightly Dovish – USD Ticks Higher

    Yellen’s prepared remarks showed that she is watching the developments in financial conditions and this may certainly slow down the path of rate hikes. Or if you wish: the stock market crash puts the Fed on the fence. However, she wasn’t overly dovish, especially given the drama in markets. With bond markets not pricing in any hikes in 2016, the few positive words she had to say triggered some USD buying. This maybe-hawkish stance is supportive of the US dollar against commodity currencies and against the pound, but less against the euro and even less against the yen, with USD/JPY actually rising. They still expect to raise rates gradua...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E The Daily Shot And Data – February 10, 2016

    We begin with Japan where the recent Abenomics efforts are about to face some headwinds after the yen has risen to 2014 levels (chart below shows the dollar falling vs. the yen). As a result, the two-day drop in the equity markets resembles what we saw after the Fukushima Accident in 2011. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield pushed deeper into negative territory. As expected, the negative 10y JGB yield takes us to $6 trillion of total negative-yielding government bonds outstanding. Amazing. Source: @fastFT Switching to the Eurozone, here are several developments we are tracking. 1. German industrial production disappointed, with the ...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    WTI Crude Plunges Back Below $28 After Yellen Disappoints

    WTI Crude futures are tumbling as Yellen’s prepared remarks offered little for the doves and played down growth due to “financial strains.” Back in the red after some overnight hope from Europe, WTI is back to a $27 handle once again…  ...
    On February 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Transports Working On Breakout, After Being Hit Very Hard

    When it comes to getting hit hard, the Dow Jones Transportation Index fits the bill over the past year. Few if any major indices have fallen harder, over the past 12-months. Below looks at the DJ Transportation Index/S&P 500 ratio over the past decade. The ratio reflects that over the past year, the index has been much weaker than the broad markets. The ratio hit channel resistance at (1) a year ago and decline almost as hard as it did during the financial crisis in 2009. The sharp 12-month decline took the ratio down to channel support at (2), where a small rally has taken place of late. This rally reflects that Transports, are reflectin...
    On February 10, 2016 / By